With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Early on in the season, the race for Best Original Song looked like it would be a repeat of 2021 where two heavyweights of the music industry (Billie Eilish and Beyonce) faced off for the Oscar. And it’s highly likely both Rihanna and Lady Gaga will be nominated for their songs from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Top Gun: Maverick respectively, given they both received nominations from the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globe Awards, and the Hollywood Music in Media Awards.
But a surprise frontrunner has emerged in recent weeks, particularly after India failed to select RRR as its official submission for Best International Feature Film. Its stand-out song, “Naatu Naatu” has seen a groundswell of love online, particularly from those who want to see it performed live on the Dolby Theatre stage. But with wins at the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, it’s not only now a shoo-in for a nomination, it’s quickly becoming our potential Oscar winner.
The only other contenders with nominations from CCA, GG, and HHMA are “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing. The former is co-written by del Toro himself, while the latter is written by Taylor Swift. Swift has been gunning for an Oscar nomination for years, while del Toro is a perennial Academy favourite. Unlike Swift, del Toro is being campaigend with a film that’s a contender across the board, so my money is on him making it through and Swift missing out yet again.
Why can’t they both make it in? Well, that’s purely because we have to make room for the annual nomination for Diane Warren, of course. After 13 losses, Warren was finally presented an Honorary Oscar this year, and it’s plausible there’s a slight chance that means the Music branch will stop nominating her by default. But they adore her and I can’t see an honorary prize really affecting her status as a perennial nominee. Has anyone even seen Tell It Like a Woman? Or listened to “Applause”? At this point, it really doesn’t matter.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG PREDICTIONS:
1. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR (HR Pictures) – CCA, GG
2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG, HMMA
3. “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios) – CCA, GG, HMMA
4. “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) – CCA, GG, HMMA
5. “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films) – HMMA
Alternate: “Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing (Sony Pictures) – CCA, GG, HMMA