With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And now we arrive at the big one and our first year of a guaranteed ten Best Picture nominees. Will it bring a more diverse line-up as the Academy hoped? Well, if your idea of diversity is ten films directed by men, sure. But we’re likely to have a roster that’s a decent mix of indie darlings and mainstream favourites, so that’s a win in some capacity, I guess.
To determine the most likely Best Picture line-up, you can look at all sorts of stats and precursor awards. It’s not an exact science, especially with the preferential ballot system. But films like Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, TÁR, The Fabelmans, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick have barely missed a beat all season long. They’re all PGA nominees and that’s enough for me to consider them to be our solid top seven.
It’s those last three spots that have been difficult to determine. All Quiet on the Western Front has emerged from seemingly nowhere (well, I did have a hunch early on) to become a genuine contender across the board. It may have been too late to win over groups like the Golden Globes or Critics’ Choice, but its strong showing at BAFTA proved it’s a film not to be underestimated. A Best Picture nod now seems quite likely.
Likewise with The Whale, which most of us presumed was mostly a contender for Best Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling only. But its surprise PGA nod coupled with Hong Chau emerging as a strong contender for a Best Supporting Actress nomination has seen it rocket into contention for a Best Picture nomination too. It’s not a certainty, but it feels a lot stronger than other challengers.
That leaves the tenth and final spot up for grabs to, well, pretty much a good half a dozen films. It might be Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness. It could be Film Twitter favourite RRR. Maybe Women Talking can rally from a dreadfully disappointing precursor season and land a nod. How about Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and PGA nominee Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery? Or Marvel heavyweight Black Panther: Wakanda Forever?
Honestly, it could be any of them. I’m going with Babylon, purely based on that SAG ensemble nod. It showed that actors love this film and they make up the bulk of the Academy. Sure, the film has mixed reviews, but that didn’t stop something like Vice in 2018. It just feels like the kind of film that people will tack on the end of their ballot because they admired Damien Chazelle’s ambition and the film’s gargantuan scope. I’m probably wrong, but that tenth spot is nigh on impossible to predict. Let the games begin.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG
3. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG
4. TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
5. Elvis (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
6. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG, PGA
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CCA, GG, PGA
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA
9. The Whale (A24) – PGA
10. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) – CCA, GG, SAG
Alternate: Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG