With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. For a while there, it looked like our top five for Best Supporting Actor was pretty set in stone, especially after the Golden Globe Awards and the Critics Choice Awards both picked the same five contenders. Then the SAG Awards and BAFTA came along and complicated everything.
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), and Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) are the only three to land nominations at all four precursors, so consider them our seemingly safe three. De Niro’s recent snub for The Irishman could certainly happen again, but he missed at BAFTA that time and that was the first sign something was brewing. Who gets the final two spots is open for many possibilities.
For a while, it seemed like Mark Ruffalo would be the chosen nominee for Poor Things, especially after nods from Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. But his snubs at BAFTA and SAG were pretty alarming, especially the latter who went with Willem Dafoe instead. Could they both make it in, especially if the Academy goes gaga for Poor Things as they did for 10-time nominee The Favourite, which landed two supporting nods?
After a string of wins with the critics groups, it looked like Charles Melton was heading for his first Oscar nod for May December, particularly after key nominations from Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. But, just like Ruffalo, he’s absent at both BAFTA and SAG. But Ruffalo has the advantage of being a three-time Oscar nominee and basically an industry veteran at this point, so newcomer Melton’s absence at two key late nominations is far more troubling and it seems his campaign is toast.
And what is to be made of the surprise BAFTA nomination for Dominic Sessa? Is it a sign The Holdovers is peaking at just the right time and Sessa nabs that final spot? How about that SAG nomination for Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)? Could he be the one to sneak the last slot? I’m playing it safe and sticking with both Poor Things lads but anything could happen.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount Pictures / Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, SAG
5. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
Alternate: Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA