With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Predicting the final five for Best Supporting Actress is always bloody tough. So many deserving contenders and only five spots. But we have Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers), Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), and Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) with nominations from BAFTA, the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and Screen Actors Guild Awards, so let’s consider them our three strongest locks.
That being said, Viola Davis had the same quartet of nominations last year for The Woman King and still missed out. With that in mind, Brooks is probably the shakiest one here, given, like The Woman King, The Color Purple isn’t really contending elsewhere. Her snub would be outrageous, as she’s the best damn thing in that film, but it could happen.
After that, it’s really anyone’s guess who takes those final two spots. The trio of Golden Globe, SAG, and CCA nominations for Jodie Foster (Nyad) is hard to ignore. The film never really took off elsewhere, but Foster has been appearing at awards shows and clearly campaigning more than usual. Despite two Oscar wins, Foster oddly hasn’t been nominated in almost 30 years, so maybe it’s finally her time to nab another nod.
That leaves us with one final spot. After her somewhat surprising BAFTA nomination, perhaps it’s going to Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest) and she’s going to be a double nominee this year; a first for a non-English speaking actor. That would be quite a feat for someone not as well known outside of international circles. It may come to fruition, but I’ve had Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) in my predictions since the start of the season and I’m not losing faith now. The Academy loves her and I think that gives her to edge.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix) – CCA, GG, SAG
5. Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (NEON) – SAG
Alternate: Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest (A24) – BAFTA