With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. And, with BAFTA nominations coming five days after the Academy’s announcement, we’re flying without that typical precursor stat. At least we have their longlists for some reference.
Of all the categories this year, Best Supporting Actress might just be the most difficult to predict. Barring a massive upset, there really are only two absolute certainties for nominations: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons). Both have nominations at the Golden Globes (where Taylor won), the Critics Choice Awards (where Madigan won), and the Actor Awards, plus both appear on the BAFTA longlist. Lock them in.
There is one other performer with the same quartet of precursor season success. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) hasn’t missed a beat thus far. And yet, I’m dropping her from my nomination predictions. Look, I hope to be wrong. What Grande delivers in the sequel deserves to be acknowledged. The fact she still landed a SAG nomination could prove very telling. But you can’t deny the film has dropped out of the overall conversation this season. Universal is not campaigning the film as aggressively as they did last year. Outside of a pre-Christmas hosting gig on SNL, Grande hasn’t been doing the rounds like she did last season. Maybe they can see the writing on the wall.
Grande’s SAG nod was likely just the result of that body’s bizarre shunning of Sentimental Value, meaning she was the de facto choice over Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. She hasn’t missed anywhere else this season, and it feels like the kind of film international Academy members are going to rally around. Does that mean Elle Fanning could slip in, too? Sure, but taking someone out to make room for Fanning is an impossible task at this point.
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) may have started the season as a somewhat outside chance for an Oscar nomination, even after her win at the Gotham Awards. Despite missing a Globe nod, she’s surged to claim CCA and SAG nominations, plus appearing on the BAFTA longlist. Sinners is undoubtedly going to rake in a huge nomination tally, and it’s now almost certain Mosaku will be taken along for the ride with it.
That leaves our final spot up for grabs. It could be Grande. Or it might be a total shock nomination from nowhere, like Nina Hoss (Hedda) or Regina Hall (One Battle After Another). But I think it will be SAG nominee Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme). Last year, Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) didn’t land a nomination all season until her surprise nod from SAG signalled an eventual Oscar nomination. Unlike Barbaro, A’zion appears on the BAFTA longlist, which gives her an even better edge. And, unlike Wicked: For Good, Marty Supreme has only grown in strength as the season reaches the final stages.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Amy Madigan – Weapons (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
4. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, SAG
5. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA longlist, SAG
Alternate: Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, SAG