With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. Predicting the final five for Best Supporting Actress is proving to be tricky business. It’s one of those categories that can often throw a surprise nomination our way like Judi Dench last year, Kathy Bates in 2019, and Marina de Tavira in 2018. And it’s plausible it’ll happen again this year.
After wins at the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) has steamrolled her way into the frontrunner position. She solidified her claim on this race with nods from BAFTA and SAG and seems assured of her first Oscar nomination in almost 20 years. Critics darling Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) is right on Bassett’s tail with nods at all four major precursor awards, so she’s in too.
While most of us presumed the chosen supporting actress contender for Everything Everywhere All at Once would be Stephanie Hsu, it’s Jamie Lee Curtis that’s emerged as the more concrete nominee. She too has nominations at all four precursor awards, which is a testament to her strong campaigning ability and the fact she’s never been nominated for an Oscar before. That could work actually against Curtis and she could be the shock snub of the season.
Hsu is definitely still in with an extremely strong chance for a nomination. Lord knows she deserves it. She missed nods from BAFTA and the Golden Globes, but I’m hoping there’s enough love for her out there to see her join Curtis in the final five. The fact she made it in with SAG shows she has the support of her fellow actors.
That leaves us with one spot left to fill. After that surprise PGA nomination, The Whale has certainly emerged as a broader contender than just for Brendan Fraser’s performance. That should be enough to push Hong Chau over the line here. Chau came achingly close to a nomination in 2017 for Downsizing and it helps that she steals focus in The Menu this season too.
But we can’t discount the chances of Dolly de Leon, who genuinely steals the show in Triangle of Sadness with her delicious performance. She’s nabbed nods from BAFTA and the Golden Globes and there’s a huge push on social media to see her receive a nomination. I think Hsu, Chau, and de Leon are all battling for those final two spots and it’s impossible to know which way it’ll go. Go with your gut.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, SAG
5. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG
Alternate: Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – BAFTA, GG