I think it’s fair to say Best Actress is the most anticipated award on Oscar night. Will Cate Blanchett join the ranks of Katharine Hepburn, Meryl Streep, and Frances McDormand and win her third Academy Award? Or will Michelle Yeoh make history as the first Asian woman and second woman of colour to win Best Actress? If there was ever a time when the Academy should call a tie, it’s now. They both deserve to win and it’s going to be bittersweet seeing this tight race come to an end.
Any other year and Blanchett would have this all sewn up already. She scored a trio of big critics wins from LA, New York, and the National Society of Film Critics. She landed wins from the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice. And her performance in TÁR has been hailed as the best of her already-illustrious career. If only she’d won SAG and we’d be saying this was all over.
That honour went to Yeoh, who collected a second SAG Award later that night in the ensemble category. The fact the actors guild was willing to award her twice shows how much they adore her. To have the support of the actors’ branch in the Academy means more than anything. With her first nomination in her four-decade career, Yeoh is on the cusp of making history. And A24 has made sure Academy members know it.
Now, I’m not saying Yeoh is only going to win to end the dominance of white performers in the Best Actress category. It helps her campaign narrative but it’s just background noise. Her work in Everything Everywhere All at Once is utterly stunning. No one else, and I repeat, no one else could have delivered this kind of performance. It’s the role Yeoh was born to play and the one to finally open the Academy’s eyes to her impeccable skills.
Coming into Oscars voting, EEAAO has all the momentum. Its sweep of the guild awards proves that. Yeoh’s SAG victory too. While Blanchett ran riot early in the season, the tide has clearly turned. And it’s undeniable the buzz is now with Yeoh. People want to see her win. It’s time. In saying that, this feels terribly reminiscent of Chadwick Boseman’s prematurely preordained victory in 2020. And we all know how that turned out.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Andrea Riseborogh – To Leslie (Momentum Pictures)
4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
5. Ana de Armas – Blonde (Netflix) – BAFTA, GG, SAG
Will win: Michelle Yeoh
Should win: Michelle Yeoh
Possible shocker: Andrea Riseborough