While the race for Adapted Screenplay initially began as a decidedly one-sided affair, it’s quickly become one of the closest contests of this year. After dominating wins from the critics groups, Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland screenplay scored victories at the Critics Choice Awards and the USC Scripter Awards and looked to be sailing to victory. But then the BAFTAs rolled around and shook up this race considerably.
Many may dismiss the BAFTA victory of Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller’s The Father as nothing more than home soil advantage, and there’s every likelihood that could be true. But their victory came just days before final Oscar voting commenced, so it was a tremendous campaign push the film desperately needed. Let’s also not forget there is a large British contingent in the Academy’s ranks. And there will be plenty looking to spread the wealth around and see The Father avoid walking away empty-handed.
This is one category I have changed prediction continuously over the last few days. And it’s highly likely I could switch again on the day of the Oscars. In nine of the past ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has also won an Oscar for screenwriting, and I can see that trend continuing with Nomadland. The Father is very much in this race, especially given Zhao is already highly likely to collect two Oscars elsewhere and members may feel that’s more than enough. For now, I’m sticking with the Best Picture frontrunner.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY FINAL PREDICTION:
1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao
2. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
3. One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
5. The White Tiger (Netflix)
Ramin Bahrani
Will win: Nomadland
Should win: One Night in Miami
Possible shocker: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm