It’s somewhat of a coin-flip choice in predicting which film will win Best Animated Feature. Unlike the last three years where Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Encanto, and Soul dominated their seasons from the start, we have a super tight race where two films have battled it out for weeks now. And which way the Academy will go is still anyone’s guess.
The Boy and the Heron took out the Golden Globe and BAFTA plus scored key noms at the Critics Choice Awards and PGA. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse landed wins at PGA, Critics Choice, and dominated the Annie Awards. Unlike other animated contenders of the past, neither film earned additional Oscar nods like score, screenplay, or visual effects to give them an edge. So what can we use to predict the Oscars?
When The Boy and the Heron was first announced, there were rumours it would be Hayao Miyazaki’s final film. That kind of narrative could have made the film practically unstoppable. And it might have been wise for GKIDS to keep that rumour alive until after the Oscars. Alas, in September last year, Miyazaki confirmed it would not be his swan song and he’s already at work on his next feature. Regardless, its wins at BAFTA and the Globes would normally be tough to ignore.
However, for the past eight years in a row, the PGA winner has also gone on to take the Oscar. The last PGA victor to fail at the Oscars was The Lego Movie in 2014, which wasn’t even nominated by the Academy. Does that give Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse the advantage in a year without an unassailable frontrunner? The only factor in its way is the fact it’s the second film in a trilogy with a third chapter on the way either this year or in 2025. Could that hurt its chances and some voters would rather wait and honour the concluding film instead? I’m sticking with Spidey, but this is one of the closest categories of the night.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – ANNIE, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – ANNIE, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
3. Elemental (Pixar) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA
4. Nimona (Netflix) – ANNIE, CCA
5. Robot Dreams (NEON) – ANNIE
Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Possible shocker: Robot Dreams