The race for Best Cinematography may have started as quite an open one, but it’s certainly snapped shut in the last few weeks. After his win at the BAFTAs in late February to match his earlier victory with the British Society of Cinematographers, Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another) really cemented his place as frontrunner with a win today at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards. And we’re likely looking at back-to-back VistaVision-shot films taking this category after the victory of The Brutalist last year.
That trio of wins for Bauman is hard to beat. Only once has a cinematographer collected these three prizes and still lost the Oscar; Roger Deakins in 2001 for The Man Who Wasn’t There, which lost to The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. Could Bauman be this year’s Deakins? Eh, it’s not looking likely. Deakins was the film’s solo nomination. Bauman is not.
It’s an interesting turn of events that proves the critics portion of the precursor season can sometimes mean absolutely nothing. Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners) was the overwhelming favourite with the critics groups with 36 wins in total. Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams) won the Critics Choice Award. But neither has snatched a key win at any industry awards, leaving their chances now feeling rather slim.
You have to journey all the way back to 2011 to find a Best Cinematography victor (Hugo) that didn’t win BAFTA, ASC or BSC, so never say never. And a win for Arkapaw presents a chance to make history as the first time a female has won this category. The writing on the wall says it’s not happening, but if Sinners has a better night than expected, we could be in for a surprise here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman (Warner Bros.) – ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA
2. Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Warner Bros.) – ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA
3. Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA, CCA
4. Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA
5. Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji (A24) – ASC, BAFTA, BSC
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: Train Dreams
Possible upset: Train Dreams