With wins at the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, BAFTAS, and the Directors Guild of America Awards, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has made a clean sweep of victories as Oscar night approaches. It’s over, yeah? There’s no chance of an upset, right? Well, yes and no.
If any other director had experienced an undefeated precursor season run like Anderson, no one would be predicting against them. But let’s not forget Sam Mendes (1917) in 2019. He also won those four awards and still lost the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho (Parasite). Hence, there is recent proof that those prizes aren’t necessarily a guarantee of an Academy Award.
Every season is different. As much as you can draw parallels between a “shock” Bong victory and a potential Coogler upset, Parasite and Sinners are two very different films. Still, both are history-makers. Those 16 nominations for Sinners are proof of that. And a win for Coogler would make him the first Black director to win this category in the Academy’s 98-year history. If Coogler can’t win Best Director with a film that broke the all-time nominations record, will any Black filmmaker ever?
It’s obviously smart to stick with Anderson. The stats are overwhelmingly in his favour. There are few filmmakers working today who feel as “overdue” for an Oscar victory as PTA. Still, we know he’s assured of at least one Academy Award when he wins for screenwriting. That could lead voters to lean towards Coogler instead. In saying that, Coogler is also guaranteed a screenwriting Oscar, so maybe that factor cancels itself out. Either way, we’re getting a deserving winner. You have to be happy with that.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG
2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG
3. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG
4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24) – BAFTA, DGA, CCA
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Possible upset: Ryan Coogler