It’s safe to say we haven’t seen a Best Documentary Feature race like this in a few years. No doco has really swept the season and the presumed frontrunner couldn’t land a U.S. distribution deal, which may be the reason behind its lack of success with the major bodies this season. While No Other Land dominated with the critics groups, it missed nominations from PGA and DGA and it couldn’t win at BAFTA, meaning it enters Oscar night without a typically-key industry win.
That being said, it did score wins at the Gotham Awards, the European Film Awards, the International Documentary Association, and the Cinema Eye Honors, which has to count for something. The fact that it lost at BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards to a film that’s not even Oscar-nominated (Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story) is also food for thought. And there is a lot of passion out there to see this incredibly pertinent documentary win this prize.
That being said, that DGA win for Porcelain War could be suggesting an “upset” is on the cards. Sure, it didn’t have No Other Land to compete with, but it’s a big boost for its Oscar chances. Or it could mean absolutely nothing and we’re all overthinking this race. The buzz has been with No Other Land all season long and it’s safe to say most Academy members don’t pay all that much attention to precursor wins, so I’m sticking with it until the end.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. No Other Land (no U.S distribution) – BAFTA, CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA
2. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) – CEH, DGA, PGA
3. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) – CCA, CEH, DGA, IDA
4. Black Box Diaries (MTV Documentary Films) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat (Kino Lorber) – CEH, DGA, EFA, Gotham, IDA
Will win: No Other Land
Should win: No Other Land
Possible shocker: Black Box Diaries