It’s safe to say the race for Best Documentary Feature has been the messiest category of the season. As we enter the final days before the Oscars, no documentary has won more than a single precursor prize. Adding to that confusion, the PGA winner (My Mom Jayne) isn’t nominated. Neither is the DGA winner (2000 Meters to Andriika). Nor the International Documentary Association‘s winner (The Tale of Silyan).
Of our final five nominees, The Perfect Neighbor won at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards in November, Come See Me in the Good Light scored at the Cinema Eye Honors in early January, and Mr. Nobody Against Putin landed the BAFTA two weeks ago. Given that the latter was the most recent victory, does that give it the edge with the Academy?
The one point that holds me back with that film is the fact that two of the past three winners have focused on the topic of Russia. Will voters really want to award another documentary centred on similar subject matter to two previous winners? It’s entirely plausible, given the Russo-Ukrainian war continues to rage on, even if another conflict has now taken over the headlines.
You’re really going to have to go on gut feeling here. There are no stats to help guide you. The Perfect Neighbor has felt like the frontrunner all season, and I’m sticking with it to the end. It bucked the CCA curse to score an Oscar nod. It landed all the essential precursor nominations, albeit without any major wins. Its subject matter is extremely pertinent. And it has the might of Netflix behind it.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) – BAFTA, CCA, CEH, DGA, PGA
2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Bantam Film) – BAFTA, PGA
3. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple Original Films) – CEH
4. The Alabama Solution (HBO Documentary Films) – CCA, PGA
5. Cutting Through Rocks (Gandom Films) – DGA
Will win: The Perfect Neighbor
Should win: The Alabama Solution
Possible upset: Cutting Through Rocks