After debuting at Sundance in January where it won the Grand Jury Prize and Audience Award, Summer of Soul was snapped up by Searchlight Pictures and Hulu for $12 million and became the immediate frontrunner for Best Documentary Feature. But we know the early leader tag has been a dreadful curse for documentaries in the past, particularly those constructed from archival footage.
When the film collected more than 30 wins from the critics groups, we waited to see if the Academy would continue their baffling tradition of snubbing the documentary frontrunner. But Summer of Soul bucked the trend and scored a nomination and now finds itself the undisputed frontrunner for the Oscar.
With recent wins at BAFTA, Critics Choice, and PGA, Summer of Soul has almost made a clean sweep in the lead up to Oscar night. Its only blip has been a loss from the Directors Guild of America who chose Stanley Nelson Jr. for Attica. However, the DGA documentary winner has only matched the Academy’s choice twice in the last five years, so it’s hardly indicative of any weakness in the film’s Oscar campaign.
There’s a mild chance of a Flee upset, but if the tide was turning that way, we’d have expected to see a major victory somewhere else in the last few weeks. Summer of Soul has all the buzz, the higher profile, and the awards season sweep. And who doesn’t want to see Questlove up on the Oscars stage?
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Flee (Neon)
3. Attica (Showtime)
4. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films)
5. Writing with Fire (Music Box Films)
Will win: Summer of Soul
Should win: Flee
Possible shocker: Attica