If there is one race this year that’s practically impossible to predict, it’s Best Film Editing. The precursor season hasn’t helped provide a clear frontrunner, so we’ll head into the Oscars with multiple possibilities and no concrete idea which way the Academy will go. Let’s look at where we stand and try and come up with something.
The BAFTAs went their own way when it came to film editing. Only one of their nominees (Dune) matched the Academy’s final five, so the selection of No Time to Die as their winner has no bearing on the Oscar race. Likewise with Critics Choice who selected West Side Story, which also isn’t Oscar-nominated. You know it’s a weird year when the editing winners from two of the biggest awards ceremonies are both snubbed by the Academy.
The American Cinema Editors guild threw a major curveball when they awarded their ACE Eddie drama prize to Pamela Martin (King Richard) over Joe Walker (Dune) and Peter Sciberras (The Power of the Dog). But we have to remember the previous two ACE Eddie drama winners (The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Parasite) didn’t ultimately win the Oscar, so maybe Martin is headed for a similar fate.
We also have to factor in the ACE Eddie for comedy which went to Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum (tick, tick…BOOM!). Yes, it is not a comedy, but it’s where Netflix chose to submit the film and it paid off (Disney chose to submit West Side Story in the drama category and it failed to be nominated). The last time an ACE Eddie “comedy” winner scored the Oscar was Chicago in 2002, and we know that film was a much broader contender than tick, tick…BOOM!.
There’s an old adage the film with the “most” editing wins, and this year that would certainly suggest a victory for Dune. There’s also a strong track record of the film editing winner also picking up another tech prize (Sound of Metal proved that last year). In recent times, the only film to buck this trend was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo in 2011. Given its dominance over the tech categories, this would also suggest a Dune victory.
So really you have two choices with your predictions; match with ACE Eddie and choose King Richard or tick, tick…BOOM! or ignore the fact Dune and The Power of the Dog haven’t won any major film editing prizes all season and pick one of those two. I’m sticking with Dune, but it’s my least confident prediction this year.
BEST FILM EDITING PREDICTIONS:
1. Dune (Warner Bros.)
Joe Walker
2. King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Pamela Martin
3. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Peter Sciberras
4. tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix)
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
5. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Hank Corwin
Will win: Dune
Should win: Dune
Possible shocker: tick, tick…BOOM!