Historically speaking, the winner of Best Makeup and Hairstyling can often provide a clue as to how a lead acting race is going to finish. Last year, the makeup victory of The Eyes of Tammy Faye signalled the eventual Best Actress win for Jessica Chastain. In 2017, it was The Darkest Hour and Gary Oldman. Likewise in 2011 for The Iron Lady and Meryl Streep and 2013 for Dallas Buyers Club and Matthew McConaughey. Ditto 2007 for La Vie en Rose and Marion Cotillard. Could a Makeup and Hairstyling victory for Elvis or The Whale signal a win for Austin Butler or Brendan Fraser?
Before I get ahead of myself, there are just as many examples of a Makeup and Hairstyling victory meaning nothing to the acting races. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom won this category in 2020 and neither Viola Davis nor Chadwick Boseman won an acting prize. Likewise in 2018 when the victory of Vice meant nothing for Christian Bale. But there’s something about this year that feels different and these categories feel intrinsically linked.
If Elvis pulls off a win, it shows how strong the love is for the film overall and bodes well for Butler. It will also expose the weakness of The Whale, which, for money, has arguably the “better” prosthetics work in turning Fraser into a 600-pound man. If The Whale succeeds, expect Fraser to follow. Or there could be a split. Who the hell knows at this point? At least the makeup race is exciting and competitive this year. We rarely get to say that.
Elvis has a trio of victories from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the Make-up and Hair Stylists Guild, which pushes it towards the lead. That BAFTA win is particularly impressive, given how heavily they favoured All Quiet on the Western Front practically everywhere else. It’s the stronger tech contender overall and I think that gives it more credibility as a potential winner. Still, don’t be surprised to see The Whale take it.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING PREDICTIONS:
1. Elvis (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
2. The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) – BAFTA
Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
4. The Batman (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) – CCA, MUAH
Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
Will win: Elvis
Should win: The Whale
Possible shocker: All Quiet on the Western Front