Remember last season when Kieran Culkin won every award in sight for Best Supporting Actor? Ah, such simpler times for us Oscar prognosticators. This season, the race has been nothing less than chaotic. And we approach Oscar night with a race where genuinely any of the five nominees could win. Love that as an Oscars watcher. Hate that as someone trying to be correct in their predictions.
While many presumed Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) would likely be the favourite from that film with the critics groups, an unexpected early leader emerged in the form of Benicio del Toro, especially after wins with big bodies like the National Board of Review, New York Critics Circle, and the National Society of Film Critics.
As del Toro continued to pick up wins, most assumed it would lead to a victory at the Critics Choice Awards in early January. However, they threw a curveball into the race by awarding Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein). Was he our new frontrunner instead? Alas, Elordi’s time in the sun was cut short by Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) picking up the Golden Globe one week later. Did that make him the new leader?
Skarsgård’s campaign took a hit when SAG shockingly snubbed him of a nomination at the Actor Awards, so all eyes turned to the BAFTAs. Would it be Skarsgård and his campaign would be back on track? Nope. Those Brits flipped the race on its head and Penn scored an unexpected victory. Despite winning two Oscars, Penn had never won a BAFTA, so perhaps it shouldn’t have been all that shocking.
It meant that we entered the Actor Awards with three different winners at three different ceremonies. SAG matched BAFTA and Penn’s victory stamped him as the new frontrunner. And many would say this race has now been put to bed. But let’s just pause for a moment. As expected, Penn has not been campaigning at all. He wasn’t even present at the BAFTA or SAG ceremonies to collect his awards. He clearly couldn’t care less if he wins a third Academy Award. Could that potentially work against him?
There’s one element I haven’t touched on: Delroy Lindo (Sinners). With literally zero major precursor nominations, Lindo’s eventual Oscar nod took many by surprise. Now knowing how Sinners dominated the nominations to break the all-time record, it’s not a huge shock that Lindo was pulled along for the ride. The man is a beloved veteran and that’s why his inclusion here could lead to an upset victory for the history books.
Many have compared a potential Lindo win to Marcia Gay Harden’s unexpected Best Supporting Actress victory for Pollack in 2000. Much like Lindo, Harden scored an Oscar nod without any precursor season love. But the biggest difference that can’t be denied is that Harden’s category was fairly weak that year. And none of her competitors had won more than one major precursor prize. You cannot say that for Lindo.
Would I be happy to see an upset win for Lindo? Of course. Do I think it’s actually going to happen? No. The double whammy of Penn winning BAFTA and SAG in the final weeks of the season is too big to ignore. He’s the type of veteran who doesn’t need to campaign to win. He’s the kind of actor who deserves to have a third Oscar to his name. He’s playing a villain and we know the Academy has a long history of awarding male bad guys in this category. Looking back, Penn was the obvious choice from the start. It just took a weird path to get us here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
3. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix) – Gotham – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Will win: Sean Penn
Should win: Jacob Elordi
Possible upset: Delroy Lindo