Oh, boy. If there’s one impossible category to predict this year, it’s Best Supporting Actress. Frankly, four of the five stand a genuine chance of winning. The precursor season has done nothing but muddy the waters of this race. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this plays out. But, hey, there’s always something exciting about that.
After an early win at the Golden Globes and then the Critics’ Choice Awards, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) looked like she may be our frontrunner. She nabbed nominations at BAFTA and SAG, but when she couldn’t pick up wins at either, her campaign stalled. Personally, I think there’s an anti-Marvel sentiment out there and that’s working against Bassett. The Globes and CCA aren’t industry awards, so I think we gave them all too much credit.
Then there’s critics season darling Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), who picked up the lion’s share of critics prizes along with nominations at all four major ceremonies. Her relatively surprising BAFTA win might be indicative of home soil advantage or it could suggest she’s a stronger contender than many thought. It looks like The Banshees of Inisherin isn’t winning anywhere else, which works in Condon’s favour, as the last eight winners of Best Supporting Actress have been the only Oscar win from that film.
And then there’s the legendary Jamie Lee Curtis, who campaigned her ass off to land her very first Oscar nomination. Most of us presumed the nom was her prize, given she’s only in Everything Everywhere All at Once for 12 minutes and it’s hardly the meatiest of roles. But her shock win at SAG has made us all question if her campaigning skills are that bloody strong that she could snatch the Oscar too.
What about her co-star Stephanie Hsu? Sure, she hasn’t picked up a major prize anywhere this season besides her recent Indie Spirit Award victory for Best Breakthrough Performance. But, with such a chaotic category where vote splitting could definitely occur, never say never to a shock Hsu win. Her role is far more substantial than Curtis and that could sway many a voter her way.
So, which way do you go? Frankly, we all have no idea, but this does feel reminiscent of 2007 when Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) won the Globe, Ruby Dee (American Gangster) won SAG, Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) won Critics’ Choice, and Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) won BAFTA. Condon feels like the Swinton of this race. Much like Swinton, she’s in a film that’s nominated across the board, she’s the film’s best chance to win something, and she’s got the BAFTA in her back pocket. It’s far from the most solid of reasons to predict Condon, but we’re all just throwing a dart at the board and hoping to be right this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, SAG
5. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) – BAFTA, SAG
Will win: Kerry Condon
Should win: Kerry Condon
Possible shocker: Stephanie Hsu