We’re just hours away from the 27th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, so it’s time to place my final predictions. Given the actors branch is the largest in the Academy, the SAG Awards have always held the power to reveal who our eventual acting Oscar winners may be. Last year, all four SAG winners repeated at the Oscars, and there’s every chance we’ll see the same this year. But with the two female acting categories still feeling wide open, SAG will either point us in the right direction or send us off on another U-turn. Let the games begin. Here are my final predictions of this year’s SAG Awards.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will win: Minari
Should win: Minari
Possible shocker: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
With only two of the five ensemble nominees up for Best Picture at the Oscars, would it be wise to assume they are the only true contenders for this prize? In the 27-year history of the SAG Awards, only once has this category gone to a film without a Best Picture nomination (The Birdcage in 1996), so it’s hard to see anything but Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning. Then again, it’s a strange year where anything could happen, so maybe it’s unwise to completely discount something like Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. For a long time, it seemed like this was The Trial of the Chicago 7‘s to lose, but the film has seemingly run out of steam in recent weeks, whereas Minari has only grown in strength. In a similar fashion to last year’s win for Parasite, Minari has the buzz and the passion to get it across the line here.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Gary Oldman – Mank
Steven Yeun – Minari
Will win: Chadwick Boseman
Should win: Ahmed, Boseman, Hopkins, and Yeun
Possible shocker: Anthony Hopkins
Chadwick Boseman will undoubtedly continue his sweeping run through awards season and add another trophy on his path to his posthumous Oscar. It’s a mighty strong category and it’s a shame we have to pick just one winner, but that’s the difficulty of awards season. Now that The Father has been more widely seen, there is a growing chorus for Anthony Hopkins to be awarded. He’s never won at SAG (six unsuccessful nominations) and he is a veteran who delivers one of the best performances of his career, so this would normally be his year. But Boseman’s record-breaking four nominations from SAG this year and that breathtaking final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom make him practically unbeatable.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Will win: Carey Mulligan
Should win: Carey Mulligan
Possible shocker: Vanessa Kirby
An impossible category to predict, given the strange trajectory of this race thus far. Andra Day won the Golden Globe, but she’s not nominated here or at BAFTA. BAFTA also overlooked Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan, so a win here is their final chance to push for a repeat at the Oscars. With five wins over the last 12 years, Davis is clearly beloved by SAG, so she’s a strong chance here. As is two-time winner Frances McDormand, who would join Renée Zellweger as the second woman to win three individual SAG Awards for film. But the recent buzz has been with Mulligan and Promising Young Woman, so this is her award to lose. If she can’t win here, her Oscar campaign will feel essentially over.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto – The Little Things
Leslie Odom Jr – One Night in Miami
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya
Should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Possible shocker: Jared Leto
After Judas and the Black Messiah entered the race late in the game, Daniel Kaluuya has become the unstoppable frontrunner. With wins at the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, Kaluuya will surely continue his winning streak here at SAG. I can barely summon an argument for any other other nominees, so consider this one of the locks of the night.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
Helena Zengel – News of the World
Will win: Youn Yuh-jung
Should win: Youn Yuh-jung
Possible shocker: Glenn Close
The supporting actress race has been the “don’t ask me who’s winning because I don’t know” category of this awards season. Four of the five SAG nominees are up for the Oscar, so unless voters are feeling like doing something totally out of left-field, you can scratch Helena Zengel off your predictions here. Honestly, I could see any of the other four winning and it wouldn’t be a total surprise (yes, even Glenn Close). It does appear to be a battle between Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-jung, which was the case during the critics awards portion of the season. Youn has the double nomination with Minari up for ensemble, so perhaps that gives her the edge here. But voters elsewhere have been keen to acknowledge comedy and a win for Bakalova would be the first SAG win for a comedic supporting performance in decades. Flip a coin for your predictions. Don’t ask me.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Da 5 Bloods
Mulan
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Wonder Woman 1984
Will win: Wonder Woman 1984
Should win: Tenet…oh, wait…
Possible shocker: The Trial of the Chicago 7
I still have no idea how The Trial of the Chicago 7 landed this nomination, particularly in the place of something like Tenet or Birds of Prey. There really isn’t any method or reasoning to predicting this category. It’s only been in existence since 2007 and it’s generally been awarded to big blockbusters or comic book films. In a year devoid of major action films, that really leaves Wonder Woman 1984 as the only nominee that fits this bill.