It’s all just a little bit of history repeating when it comes to the Best Actress race. Last year was pure chaos, and it’s now abundantly clear this year will be no different. We knew predicting the Academy’s final five picks was an impossible task. Three of their nominees were fairly foreseeable, but they threw some major surprises at us few saw coming.
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) have felt like solid nominees since the start of awards season, so their nominations were far from surprising. On the flip side. Kristen Stewart (Spencer) came back from the dead to grab the Oscar nod we always thought was undeniably hers. And Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) snatched a nomination with zero major precursor nominations.
When Kidman won the Golden Globe in January, she was starting to feel like the frontrunner, particularly after Stewart failed to snag a SAG nomination. But just a few days ago, SAG decided to throw their own curveball with a shock win for Chastain. Given none of the five Oscar nominees are up for a BAFTA and it’s widely presumed Stewart will win Critics Choice, we will likely enter Oscar night with a different Best Actress winner at all four major ceremonies. Just like last year.
Who’s winning then? Honestly, there’s a case to be made for all five, and it’s going to be impossible to know which way the Academy will go. Kidman, Colman, and Cruz are already winners, so that may work against them. Then again, that didn’t hurt Frances McDormand last year. Chastain has been campaigning like crazy, so perhaps that will pay off. She also has that “overdue” feeling behind her narrative. And then there’s Stewart, who has to break all kinds of statistical rules to snatch a victory. But, as we always say, rules are made to be broken.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? BAFTA and Critics Choice will both reveal their choices on March 13. As previously mentioned, none of our Oscar nominees are present at BAFTA, so, unlike last year, their winner is irrelevant. If Kidman or Chastain take out Critics Choice, the race could be over. If Stewart or Colman win, we’ve got a battle on our hands. Whoever wins will elicit the kind of last-minute headlines that could make all the difference as Academy members begin to cast their votes.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
2. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (Neon)
5. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)