The battle for Best Original Screenplay is one of the tightest two-horse races of the season. Will this finally be Paul Thomas Anderson’s year after four unsuccessful screenwriting nominations? Or is Kenneth Branagh set to steal it for his personal ode to his childhood? Both have nabbed nominations from BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice. Branagh has a win from the HFPA. Anderson has a nod from WGA where Branagh was ineligible. It’s impossible to split them right now, but they’re both certain of an Oscar nomination.
Despite a divisive response to Don’t Look Up from the critics (56% on Rotten Tomatoes, yeesh), Adam McKay and David Sirota have also scored nominations from BAFTA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and WGA. Love it or loath it, that impressive run of nods is impossible to ignore. McKay’s third screenwriting nomination is happening, whether you like it or not.
Aaron Sorkin also has the quintet of BAFTA, Golden Globes, WGA, and Critics Choice for Being the Ricardos, so it’s hard to see him missing out on his fifth screenwriting nomination. Zach Baylin has also seen a strong run of nominations for King Richard with nods from BAFTA, Critics Choice, and WGA. He’s only missing a Golden Globe nomination, but that’s hardly damaging when they don’t split their screenplay category between original and adapted.
However, history suggests we may see a screenplay nod that’s the film’s sole nomination. Mike Mills achieved that in 2016 for 20th Century Women, so he could certainly do it again for C’mon C’mon, which infuriatingly hasn’t received the awards season love it deserves. There’s a lot of online love for Fran Kranz and Mass. Likewise with Pedro Almodóvar for Parallel Mothers and Michael Sarnoski for Pig. As much as I’d love to see it happen, I just don’t see who you knock out to make room for any of these solo nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
Kenneth Branagh
2. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Paul Thomas Anderson
3. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Adam McKay, David Sirota
4. King Richard (Warner Bros)
Zach Baylin
5. Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Aaron Sorkin
IN CONTENTION
C’mon C’mon (A24)
Mike Mills
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola
The Hand of God (Netflix)
Paolo Sorrentino
A Hero (Amazon Studios)
Asghar Farhadi
Mass (Bleeker Street)
Fran Kranz
Nine Days (Sony Pictures Classics)
Edson Oda
Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
Pig (Neon)
Michael Sarnoski
Red Rocket (A24)
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
Spencer (Neon)
Steven Knight
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt