We’ve got a guaranteed ten Best Picture nominees for the first time since 2009. Does that make predicting the Academy’s choices easier? Well, no. It’s always hard to know how a “new” voting system will work in its first year. When the Academy switched to ten nominees in 2009, the Best Picture line-up went on to include an animated film for only the second time, a quirky sci-fi flick, and two indie darlings that probably wouldn’t have stood a chance in the old voting system. But it’s unlikely we’ll see such interesting choices this year and the Academy will just pick ten atypical Best Picture nominees.
The first three solid locks would have to be Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and King Richard. The first two have the quartet of big nominations from BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes (which The Power of the Dog won). The latter missed with BAFTA, but has the bonus of a SAG ensemble nomination, which it shares with Belfast. One of these three is likely taking Best Picture. The next month will light the way.
Licorice Pizza, Dune, and Don’t Look Up also have the big four nominations, so we should consider them securely in the race too. For the longest time, I didn’t think Don’t Look Up would be a major player in the Oscar race, especially after those disastrous reviews. But its run of success in January is impossible to ignore, especially the nominations for SAG ensemble and Best Film at BAFTA.
West Side Story missed several key nominations from the technical guilds in January, so it’s definitely taken a tumble in the race for the big prize. But it still nabbed a nod from PGA and Critics Choice plus a Best Comedy/Musical win at the Golden Globes, so it seems unlikely it’s not landing a Best Picture nomination. CODA has three of the four major nominations (PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes) plus a SAG ensemble nod, so it feels safe as well.
There’s still a huge question mark over how well tick, tick… BOOM! will perform. It could limp away with just a Best Actor nomination for Andrew Garfield or it could overperform and score a stack of nods. It didn’t get any love from BAFTA (maybe it was just too American?), but nods from PGA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes plus a first-time feature DGA nomination for Lin-Manuel Miranda should surely be enough to see it take ninth place.
That leaves us with nine of the PGA’s ten nominees, and history suggests the Academy won’t match 10/10. So which film gets that final spot is really anyone’s guess at this point. After a relatively surprising SAG ensemble nod, it could be House of Gucci. Nightmare Alley could overperform and steal the last spot. The Tragedy of Macbeth hasn’t seen any love this season but never underestimate a Coen production. And that PGA nod for Being the Ricardos is hard to ignore.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I’ve had Drive My Car in my Best Picture predictions for two months now, and I’m sticking with it. It’s true Janus Films isn’t exactly a major player in the awards game, but those Best Picture wins from major critics groups like Los Angeles, New York, and the National Society of Film Critics gave the film the kind of publicity you cannot buy. With ten nomination spots up for grabs, there’s no excuse for the Academy to ignore world cinema this year. And I have to believe they won’t let me down.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Belfast (Focus Features)
2. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. King Richard (Warner Bros.)
4. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
5. Dune (Warner Bros.)
6. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
7. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
8. CODA (Apple TV+)
9. tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
10. Drive My Car (Janus Films)
IN CONTENTION
Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
House of Gucci (MGM)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A21/Apple TV+)