Well, the Academy certainly threw a few curveballs when they announced the five nominees for Best Supporting Actress. It’s ironic, given it seemed like one of the few categories that had been set in stone for months. First, there was the frustrating snub of Ruth Negga for Passing. Second, there was the ridiculous omission of Caitríona Balfe in favour of her Belfast co-star Judi Dench. And, finally, there was the somewhat surprising nomination of Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter.
Along with Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Balfe was the only other contender who’d scored nominations at the four major televised awards (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice), so her snub was particularly shocking. But it’s clear they favoured her bigger name co-star and Dench sailed through to her eighth nomination.
At the end of the day, none of it really mattered. DeBose is so far out in front that it was of no consequence who the Academy included in their nominations. She led the field with wins from the critics groups. She’s now scored victories at both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards. And her Oscar win will make her the first Afro-Latina and first openly LGBTQ+ acting winner. I could try and make a case for Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) or Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), but I’d just be clutching at straws.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? BAFTA and Critics Choice will reveal their winners on March 13. Expect to see DeBose win both and really put this race to bed.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
2. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
3. Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
4. Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
5. Judi Dench – Belfast (Focus Features)