With the Academy’s nominations announcement drawing closer by the day, it’s time to lay it all on the line with my final Oscar nomination predictions. The battle to predict the final five for Best Cinematography is proving to be quite tricky. Only Empire of Light and Top Gun: Maverick has secured nods from three major precursor bodies in BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the American Society of Cinematographers.
Top Gun: Maverick has been the clear cinematography favourite with the critics this season with over 20 wins including Critics’ Choice and the National Board of Review, so it’s our current frontrunner. While Empire of Light saw its Oscar campaign fall apart after dreadful reviews, its cinematographer is two-time winner Roger Deakins. With 15 nominations to his name, Deakins rarely needs the film to be a contender overall to be nominated. Consider him locked for #16.
That leaves the final three spots open to all sorts of possibilities. While James Friend’s stunning work on All Quiet on the Western Front has seen him nab only a BAFTA nod thus far, the film hadn’t really taken off until the latter part of the season. It’s peaking at just the right moment and I think the Academy will follow the Brits lead. Janusz Kaminski hasn’t seen much success this season either for his work on The Fabelmans, which only netted him a Critics’ Choice nod. But he had a similar poor run last year for West Side Story and still nabbed an Oscar nomination. History should repeat itself this year.
As for that final spot, Mandy Walker could become only the third female cinematographer nominated in Oscars history for her work on Elvis. Last year’s winner Greig Fraser (Dune) could follow it up with a nomination for The Batman. Hoyte van Hoytema has picked up a hefty haul of wins with the critics for Nope. How bout previous winner Linus Sandgren (La La Land) for Babylon? Or Kim Ji-Yong for Decision to Leave? I’m playing it safe and going with Avatar: The Way of Water, but my confidence is extremely low.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY PREDICTIONS:
1. Top Gun: Maverick – Claudio Miranda (Paramount Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, CCA
2. Empire of Light – Roger Deakins (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, CCA
3. All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend (Netflix) – BAFTA
4. The Fabelmans – Janusz Kaminski (Universal Pictures) – CCA
5. Avatar: The Way of Water – Russell Carpenter (20th Century Studios) – CCA
Alternate: The Batman – Greig Fraser (Warner Bros.) – ASC, BAFTA