If there’s one category that’s been causing chaos and confusion all season long, it’s the race for Best Actress. The season began with Kristen Stewart stamping her claim as the early frontrunner after her performance in Spencer earned rave reviews during the festival circuit. When Stewart starting cleaning up with the critics groups, it looked like she was starting to become essentially unstoppable.
That all changed in January when Stewart lost the Golden Globe to Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) and failed to nab a key nomination from the Screen Actors Guild. When Stewart also miss a nomination from BAFTA (though, to be fair, none of her fellow eventual Oscar nominees landed a BAFTA nod), most pundits presumed her Oscar campaign was dead. But NEON never stopped campaigning for Stewart and she came back from the dead to snatch her first Oscar nomination.
After Kidman won that Golden Globe, many started calling her the new frontrunner. But without a televised ceremony, it’s clear in hindsight that the Globes ultimately had very little impact on the race this year. Kidman’s campaign hit a brick wall when SAG chose to honour Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), leading to Chastain immediately being declared the new leader.
Unsurprisingly, Critics Choice followed suit and also gave their trophy to Chastain. Their ceremony was originally scheduled for January and you’d have to assume Chastain would not have won back then. At that point in the race, it was all about Stewart, especially with critics. Chastain’s win in March felt like little more than Critics Choice attempting to predict the Oscars. Regardless, Chastain enters the ceremony as the only nominee with more than one major win.
As for our other two Oscar nominees, Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) scored nominations everywhere but BAFTA and collected several prizes from the critics groups plus a win at the Gotham Awards. On the flipside, Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) failed to be nominated at every major ceremony, but nabbed four wins with the critics including two major associations; Los Angeles and the National Society of Film Critics. Her Oscar nomination was somewhat surprising, but could be extremely telling.
Much like last year, that leaves us without a concrete frontrunner. You can genuinely make a case for each nominee winning. Kidman, Colman, and Cruz are all previous winners. That could either work in their favour or against them. Chastain is chasing her first win after two unsuccessful nominations and has that “overdue” narrative behind her. While lacking major wins, Stewart is the most honoured performer of the season and the fact she still slipped in without love from SAG or BAFTA could suggest she has the support needed to win.
So, what’s my final prediction? Honestly, I’ve changed my mind at least three times since starting this article. The tremendous adoration for Stewart over the last few months could be enough to propel her to an upset win. Colman is so beloved that I wouldn’t be surprised to see her snatch it like she did in 2018. Kidman’s Globe win feels like an eternity ago and the buzz has long died, so I really think this comes down to Chastain and Cruz.
Now I know a Cruz win makes absolutely no sense. She didn’t land a major nomination or win anywhere else this season, but the fact she still scored an Oscar nod could be indicative of an incoming shock victory. We’ve seen online support for Cruz from stars like Salma Hayek Pinault, Lupita Nyong’o, and Robin Wright. She has the might of Sony Pictures Classics behind her, who just last year pulled off an upset win for Anthony Hopkins (The Father). And she gives a stunning performance. Without a clear frontrunner, this feels like it could be the perfect time for a Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) type win.
But the smart/safe bet is Chastain. That SAG win edges Chastain to the front of a fiercely competitive pack. Even with only three nominations, she feels entirely overdue and this could finally be her moment. Is it frustrating she’s going to get a “career” Oscar so soon? Sure, but it is what it is. It’s not entirely set in stone. Literally any of the other four could still win. But we have to place our bets and I’m sticking with Chastain…though I may change my mind again before Sunday.
BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Kristen Stewart – Spencer (Neon)
4. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
5. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Will win: Jessica Chastain
Should win: Kristen Stewart
Possible shocker: Olivia Colman