We’ve got one hell of a tight race in the battle for Best Adapted Screenplay. I have changed my prediction at least 10 times over the past few weeks. And I’m still not entirely confident of my final choice. But, at least that makes the evening exciting and we’ll truly got into this one without a clear idea of who’s taking it home.
While the Oscar campaign for Women Talking just never got off the ground, it still managed to score a Best Picture nomination plus that key SAG ensemble nod. Sarah Polley felt like the frontrunner from the start and her wins at Critics’ Choice, WGA, and USC have certainly kept her nose in the lead. Polley is universally adored and, as silly as that sounds, it helps in a beauty pageant like the Oscars.
Closely on Polley’s tail is the trio from All Quiet on the Western Front, which soared to nine Oscar nominations overall and seven wins at BAFTA including Best Screenplay. It was ineligible at WGA and neither it nor Women Talking landed a Golden Globe nomination, which means the Oscars will be the very first time the two screenplays go head-to-head. That’s a rare feat and one that doesn’t help from a predictions perspective.
A non-English language screenplay has never won the adapted category at the Oscars. That either works in the favour of All Quiet on the Western Front as a chance to make history or it’s a stat that proves its future downfall. It’s another coin-flip category where I’m sticking with Polley, as I have done all season, but it’s far from certain.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Women Talking – Sarah Polley (United Artists Releasing) – CCA, GG, USC, WGA
2. All Quiet on the Western Front – Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson, Edward Berger (Netflix) – BAFTA
3. Living – Kazuo Ishiguro (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, CCA, USC
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson (Netflix) – CCA, WGA
5. Top Gun: Maverick – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks (Paramount Pictures) – WGA
Will win: Women Talking
Should win: Women Talking
Possible shocker: Living