The battle for Best Adapted Screenplay has taken a few turns over the course of the season. Early in the race, the presumptive frontrunner was undoubtedly Oppenheimer, purely on the basis of its likelihood to sweep numerous categories. While it scored all the major precursor screenplay nominations, it failed to win anywhere except with the critics groups where it led with 15 victories. And few are now predicting it to take this category.
Despite Barbie earning nominations for original screenplay with BAFTA and WGA and a win at the Critics Choice Awards, the Academy decided the film must compete as an adaptation rather than an original screenplay. Whether that boosted or hurt its chances of a win is anyone’s guess, but without a Best Director nomination, this is the only place Oscar voters can award Greta Gerwig (and Noah Baumbach). Is this a case similar to Argo where Ben Affleck’s directing snub bolstered its overall campaign? Maybe, maybe not.
And then came along the quiet contender that looks set to snatch the Oscar out of the hands of either “Barbenheimer” film. After American Fiction scored the TIFF People’s Choice Award in September, it became a serious awards player, given the previous 11 winners had all gone on to multiple Oscar nods including Best Picture. And, barring The Fabelmans last year, they’d all collected at least one Academy Award. Cord Jefferson went on to win at the Critics Choice Awards, USC Scripter, and, more importantly, the BAFTAs, where Adapted Screenplay was its sole nomination. And you’d have to assume it’s taking the WGA win in April too.
Is there still a chance of Barbie taking this one and Gerwig winning after two previous unsuccessful screenwriting nominations? Sure. Could Oppenheimer steamroll its way to an even bigger sweep than most are expecting and it takes this category too? Absolutely. But that trio of wins for American Fiction makes Jefferson the undeniable frontrunner.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. American Fiction – Cord Jefferson (Amazon MGM Studios) – BAFTA, CCA, USC, WGA
2. Barbie – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA (original), CCA (original), GG, WGA (original)
3. Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC, WGA
4. Poor Things – Tony McNamara (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC
5. The Zone of Interest (A24) – Jonathan Glazer – BAFTA
Will win: American Fiction
Should win: Barbie
Possible shocker: Poor Things