As expected, there were no shocks to be found in the Academy’s five picks for Best Adapted Screenplay. This race has been fairly stagnant all season, particularly with Jane Campion’s total dominance right from the start. The fact The Power of the Dog scored a field-leading 12 nominations only solidifies Campion’s practically unbeatable chances at her second screenwriting Oscar.
The only bump in the road of Campion’s campaign came from a loss at the USC Scripter Awards where Maggie Gyllenhaal won for The Lost Daughter. It’s a great win for Gyllenhaal, who’s been toiling over this project since 2018. But the USC Scripter winner hasn’t matched the Academy’s choice since Call Me By Your Name in 2017, so Campion shouldn’t be troubled by it.
It now looks like Campion’s strongest competition lies with Sian Heder for CODA. After that SAG Ensemble win, the film is certainly peaking at just the right time. With Campion and Gyllenhaal both ineligible at WGA, Heder will likely pick up a win there, so that’s more press for Apple TV+’s big hope this year. But Campion is so far out in front and it’s hard to see anyone catching her.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? BAFTA and Critics Choice will reveal their winners on March 13. All five nominees are present at BAFTA, but Drive My Car is absent at Critics Choice. A win for Campion at either (or both) will further cement her frontrunner status. With three of the five nominees ineligible, the winner of the WGA won’t have much of an impact, but their choice will be revealed on March 20.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Jane Campion
2. CODA (Apple TV+)
Sian Heder
3. Drive My Car (Janus Films)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
4. The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
Maggie Gyllenhaal
5. Dune (Warner Bros.)
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth