24th Screen Actors Guild Awards Predictions

Even though the Oscar nominations don’t get announced until Tuesday morning, the Screen Actors Guild Awards will be taking place on Sunday and are a very important precursor. They’ve been a predictor of Best Picture upsets like Shakespeare In Love and Crash which won the SAG award for Best Cast In A Motion Picture. They can also shake up an acting race like last year when Denzel Washington threw a curve-ball in the Best Actor race when he won Best Male Actor In A Leading Role for Fences over front-runner and eventual Oscar winner Casey Affleck.

So, they are more of a key precursor than the Golden Globe Awards which do give a film momentum yet there is no overlap in the two voting bodies since the Golden Globe Awards are decided by a small group of film journalists while the Screen Actors Guild is made up of about 129,000 actors actively working in the industry.

Anyhow, let’s take a look at what’ll likely prevail in the film categories:

Best Cast In A Motion Picture:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Lady Bird

Three Billboards has early momentum with its four Golden Globe wins. But because this is the award for Best Acting Ensemble, Lady Bird will likely prevail. While it is a vehicle for lead actress Saoirse Ronan, the cast is still made up of young film actors like Ronan, Lucas Hedges, and Timothee Chalamet as well as seasoned veterans like Laurie Metcalf, Tracy Letts, Stephen Henderson, and Lois Smith who are established in mediums like theater and television. Because the Screen Actors Guild is made up of actors from different mediums, that kind of crossover appeal along with the strength of the film itself should be enough for Lady Bird to win in this category.

Best Male Actor In A Leading Role:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

This one is pretty signed, sealed, and delivered. If the Golden Globes, an organization that Oldman has bad mouthed, gave him a trophy, then it’s hard to imagine that he loses the Oscar. If anyone could derail his chances here at SAG, it might be Daniel Kaluuya since it’s a way to reward Get Out and also, Chalamet is the only representation for his film, Washington is filler, and James Franco certainly won’t prevail due to…reasons.

Best Female Actor In A Leading Role:
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape Of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Despite Best Actress being a super competitive race, this one will probably go to Frances McDormand since this is the best place to reward Three Billboards and she’s also a consensus choice since even those that hate the film love her performance. If anyone could derail McDormand, it might be Golden Globe winner Saoirse Ronan who’s also in a nominee for Best Ensemble and while McDormand may be a beloved veteran, never underestimate how much the industry loves to reward ingenues. That could make Margot Robbie a spoiler as well. McDormand may still be out in front but a win won’t be that easy for her.

Best Male Actor In A Supporting Role:
Steve Carell, Battle Of The Sexes
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape Of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Richard Jenkins, The Shape Of Water

This is my “No Guts, No Glory” prediction. Sam Rockwell may be out in front thanks to his Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins but the problem here is that he’s competing against his co-star Woody Harrelson who he may end up splitting votes with. Willem Dafoe may be a critical darling and a respected veteran but The Florida Project had ended up being a “Dafoe or bust” deal. That’s why I’m going crazy and predicting Richard Jenkins to prevail for The Shape Of Water. Much like Dafoe, he’s a beloved actor’s actor and a previous Oscar nominee but he’s in a film that has more widespread industry support. Since Sally Hawkins, who he shares most of his scenes with, is unlikely to win Best Actress, this would be a good place to reward the film unless its Best Ensemble miss is an indication that actors might not be that in love with the film. I don’t know. This one’s a bit of a coin toss.

Best Female Actor In A Supporting Role:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Battle Of The Television Actresses: Janney v. Metcalf.

But, it’s more than likely going to go to Janney. While Metcalf may be a respected actress who’s consistent on television and even theater, Janney is an overall consistent presence. Janney may have multiple Emmys under her belt but she also works heavily on movies in addition to doing theater work. She’s someone who’s been in everything, has practically worked with everyone, and has finally found the right role to put her in the Oscar hunt. A very actor-ly role at that since it’s a scene-chewing, transformative villain role. Highly doubt that SAG will pass up the opportunity to reward her.

Any thoughts on what could win on Sunday night? Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section. Thanks for reading!