Many pundits may have put a fork in this shortened season that has moved so fast, so furious. Barely getting over Golden Globe hangovers, Oscar voters must now weigh in their final thoughts. The Writers Guild give out their awards on Saturday. One headline grabbing win could tip the scales in favor of a surprise Best Picture contender waiting quietly in the wings.
When you look at some of the biggest upsets in recent memory, “Moonlight” over “La La Land”, “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain”, and “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan”, all had key WGA wins to propel them to victory. Sure, the latter two also had SAG wins. However, SAG alone without PGA, DGA or WGA does not help. Just ask “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” or “American Hustle”!
Of course, WGA could throw us for a loop like they did last year and go rouge by giving Best Original Screenplay to “Knives Out” or “Booksmart” and Best Adapted Screenplay to “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”. Those would be worthy winners to be sure. Though if the non-numerically titled Best Picture nominees do not pick up a prize this weekend, then go ahead and call the engravers and mark down “1917” as 2019’s Best Picture.
Looking at adapted screenplay, the screenplays from this year’s Best Picture lineup are “The Irishman”, “Jojo Rabbit”, “Joker”, and “Little Women”. Given that Steve Zaillian has won before, there may not be a sense of urgency to give him the win here for “The Irishman”. Joaquin Phoenix made “Joker” the mega success that it has become more so than its screenplay did. That leaves Greta Gerwig and Taika Waititi. Gerwig will be the favorite coming into this competition, especially after the USC Scripter win as well as her victory at Critics Choice.
However, factors exist that could give Waititi the edge. “JoJo Rabbit” may feel fresher for some voters than another remake. His prior films, “What We Do in the Shadows” (now a tv series), “Hunt for the Wilderpeople” and “Thor: Ragnarok” are wildly popular. Jojo’s WWII setting also helps give the script gravitas. Lastly, up to this point, “Jojo Rabbit” is second only to “1917” in terms of industry guild wins, not to mention it also nabbed the TIFF Audience Award over “Marriage Story” and “Parasite”, two key contenders in the next WGA category – original screenplay.
Critics showered “Marriage Story” with almost as many screenplay wins as “Parasite”. However, when you look at how much love Bong Joon-ho has received this award season, it’s hard to see him and his writing partner Han Jin-won losing here. “1917” doesn’t need to win here. The PGA/DGA combo usually gives contenders the one-two punch needed to win Best Picture. Would a film with PGA/DGA/WGA victories be unstoppable? Sadly no. “Crash” defeated “Brokeback Mountain”, which had that exact trio. “Crash” had SAG/WGA. Thus, a “Parasite” WGA win maintains its status as a formidable contender to take the ultimate Academy Award.
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”, as many know, was not eligible for WGA as Quentin Tarantino is not a guild member. “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” has won the Globe and Critics Choice. If it wins at BAFTA, it should win the Oscar. Why? The only other film to win at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA also won the Oscar. That film? Tarantino’s “Django Unchained”. “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” could still win Best Picture given that other winners have won with just screenplay or screenplay and a supporting actor win. A question lingers though. If a film about Hollywood can’t win at SAG, PGA, or DGA, how does it all of a sudden win Best Picture? Especially when it has missed at all the other guilds as well.
Look to WGA to match the ACE Eddies this year by giving their big prizes to “Parasite” and “Jojo Rabbit”. Thus, keeping this a race, once again, until the final envelope opens on Oscar night.
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