Since 1993, do you know off the top of your head which director has been nominated with the Directors Guild of America the most times? That’s right, Martin Scorsese with 6. Then it is 5 for Steven Spielberg. And 4 each for Ang Lee and Christopher Nolan. As a side-note, those four filmmakers have had a very turbulent relationship with both DGA and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Look it up, but you’ll find the correlation between the two awards groups for these directors to be all over the map.
Spielberg has two DGA plaques to his name in those 25 years. So does Ron Howard. One would match Oscar for the win, the other he was not even nominated by the Academy. Ang Lee has two Oscars, and two DGAs, for 3 different movies. Not one of them won Best Picture at the Oscars. Mind-boggling. And that kind of head-spinning mentality is somewhere we are at now as we approach the business end of this year’s exhilarating awards journey.
So I have my own interpretation of the awards season thus far – and where it might well be going. And honestly, I have hardly moved a muscle in regard to my own outlook on certain prizes come Oscar nomination morning. And, indeed, Academy Awards night in March. Let’s, for now, keep my personal perspective out of this (as much as I can). And see if we can discover any insights to Best Picture and Best Director prospects based on the revelation of this year’s five feature film directors nominated at the Directors Guild of America.
Before the announcement on Thursday, those of us in the awards race marathon could identify one hell of an open race. It has been for some time. And following a hefty bout of trying to predict the DGA nominees – who could sneak in, who is getting snubbed – it turns out the shortlisted five represented perhaps the only five that can win the Best Picture Oscar now. I say only, we rarely have a five-horse race. Let’s count our blessings.
I know, I know, much of you think Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk is dead in the sand. So, what, the film and director continue to show up in pretty much every awards group, even six months after its release, to just make up the numbers? Have I got that right?
Then we have critical darlings, representing the black and female filmmakers respectively. Jordan Peele took to screenwriting and directing impressively with Get Out. While Greta Gerwig added a further arrow to her filmmaking bow with Lady Bird. You ask around the Oscar predicting world, many are certain one of these two is winning Best Picture.
Oh, and let’s not forget the two movies with what would appear to have the strongest momentum. Right now I mean. That abstract tide will change again. Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) and Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) both just came out of the Golden Globes as the top dogs (with Lady Bird). Because the HFPA still matter as Oscar indicators. Sure.
Let’s get beyond the Globes then. Sure, they used to point very accurately to where the Academy would be heading. The focus has shifted gradually, but significantly in the last 25 years. Over the years the race has been dominated by one film, and that hardly happens now either. But the likes of Steven Spielberg (Schindler’s List), James Cameron (Titanic), Sam Mendes (American Beauty), Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), Martin Scorsese (The Departed), managed the remarkable feat of winning Best Director at the Golden Globes, with DGA, and at the Oscars – as well as Best Picture. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) also joins that illustrious list, but he was a very late-comer. There was a change in Academy voting, but not since Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) in 2008 has this statistic been repeated.
In that same period, since 1993, there were just five examples when directors won those three directing awards (Globe, DGA, Oscar), but their film failed to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Of course resulting in a Picture / Director split. Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan) and Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain) famously lost Best Picture at the very last hurdle. More recently Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity) and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) steamrolled to victory without taking the Academy’s top prize. And then last year, Damien Chazelle won all three, but La La Land unforgettably lost Best Picture.
So with the Golden Globe under his belt, Guillermo del Toro is the one to bring this stat back on the map. Can The Shape of Water go on to win Best Picture too? We’ll have to wait, like with any of the big contenders, for the PGA and the results of the DGA. And with a healthy showing at the BAFTAs, del Toro is on the right path.
Let’s forget the Globes, then. How about Martin McDonagh for the DGA? In my opinion, the unlikeliest for this honor. He has not gained much traction in the directing categories over the season. And a favorite for the SAG Ensemble, though I am not about to entertain that statistic as a Best Picture reflector.
If Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele win DGA, then it could well and truly be game over. Either film, Lady Bird and Get Out, have the clear support to go on to claim Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars. The directors will, of course make history, so there is that. But also the fact both films dominated the critics Best Picture awards. But try selling that enthusiasm to Sideways and The Social Network. Even in a wide open, shifting race such as this, the DGA award still has game-changer importance.
When the DGA nominations were announced, much of the conversation seemed to spiral into which of the five directors would not make the Oscar cut. Only three times in those last 25 years have the DGA matched the Oscars Best Director five-for-five. The last time being 2009, when the Best Picture expanded from five to ten slots. And a woman and a black man were nominated for Best Director. The previous two times, in 1998 and 2005, resulted in the Picture / Director split. An occurrence that could very likely happen this year, given the competition across several movies.
We’ll assume there is a split. So how will this work? Guillermo del Toro for Best Director, and Lady Bird for Picture? Is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri heading for Best Picture, with maybe Jordan Peele taking the Director prize? It’s a fascinating range of scenarios. The split. The Best Director nod without a Best Picture slot. And vice versa. The latter is almost incomparable since AMPAS changed the voting and Best Picture range 8 years ago.
Looking at the last 25 years, there’s a multitude of DGA nominees that went on to miss out on a Best Director nod with the Academy, but the film still secured a Best Picture slot. Some were surprises indeed – Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers); Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty); Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge!). Some were not so much – Tom Hooper (Les Misérables); Mike Newell (Four Weddings and a Funeral); Marc Forster (Finding Neverland). Frank Darabont was nominated for DGA twice (The Shawshank Redemption; The Green Mile), but Oscar went nowhere near him. And look, there’s Ron Howard (Apollo 13) and Ang Lee (Sense and Sensibility) again in 1995, directing the front-runners that never made it to the Oscar Best Director list. I mean, Howard won the DGA for Heaven’s sake. And then of course, Ben Affleck (Argo) wins DGA without a Best Director Oscar nomination. A crazy, one-off year as only two directors made it into both branches. Spielberg and Ang Lee, obviously.
Okay, I got one. How about those directors nominated with DGA, but then the film was not nominated for either Picture or Director? Yep, that happened a few times. Martin Scorsese (The Age of Innocence) and Cameron Crowe (Almost Famous) would be the most famous examples, if it were not for the fact that happened to one director twice since 2001. Guess who? That is not happening this year. The prospect of any one of Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, or Dunkirk not making the Best Picture line-up now seems near-impossible. It would take a brave soul to pick which of those directors won’t be Oscar nominated, but missing out in that category is more likely.
Which directors not nominated with the Directors Guild could steal a spot at the Oscars? Momentum can alter even yet. there’s still time. Steven Spielberg (The Post) or Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) could add to their Oscar arsenal. Mark my words, though, directors like Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name), Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya), or Sean Baker (The Florida Project), are just three names that could be called out for Best Director come nominations morning. And don’t tell me you confidently predicted Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Alexander Payne (Nebraska) and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild).
And you’d be a fool to predict any filmmaker for the Best Director Oscar win without both DGA nomination and Best Picture nod. Apart from Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) in 2014, these elusive directors popped up back when there were five Best Picture slots. Very, very tough to see how that will happen this year. But on the brink of digressing, I simply must shout out to Robert Altman (Short Cuts), Krzysztof Kieslowski (Three Colors: Red), Atom Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter), David Lynch (Mulholland Drive), Pedro Almodóvar (Talk to Her), Fernando Meirelles (City of God), Paul Greengrass (United 93). No DGA or Best Picture nominations, ironically meaning none of these terrific nominees had a chance. Quite a list though.
Heading into the Oscars race with no DGA nomination, regardless, means your Best Picture chances are minuscule. Sure, I bet if you obtained a vote count you’d find the likes of Lasse Hallström (The Cider House Rules) and Robert Altman (Gosford Park) were not too far away. But its few and far between. These stats and gut feelings combined still leaves us with these five DGA nominees for 2017. A horror of sorts, a coming-of-age story, a social drama, a fantasy love fable – I mean, relevant tales for our times. One of the most exciting rides in years.
Just quickly, Stephen Daldry (The Reader) pipped DGA nominee Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight) to the Best Director Oscar list back in 2008. And Best Picture. Seven years earlier Nolan was nominated with DGA for Memento, but again didn’t make the Oscars. The screenplay was considered the favorite for a good part of the season, but lost to Gosford Park. Even Julian Fellowes in his winner’s speech admitted he thought Memento would win. Then in 2010, the highly fancied Nolan (Inception) was not nominated again, this time replaced with Ethan and Joel Coen (True Grit). So you could say, statistically speaking, AMPAS owe Nolan his first nomination. And arguably, DGA owe him his first win. But, what I will not do publicly, is predict that Christopher Nolan will win the DGA for Dunkrik, deservedly so, on the way to Oscar glory. No, that’d be stupid.