Best Actor Oscars Predictions (January)

Riz Ahmed has dominated the slew of awards this month for his revelatory performance in Sound of Metal including key wins from the National Board of Review and at the Gotham Awards. While we initially thought Best Actor would be a two-horse race between Chadwick Boseman and Anthony Hopkins, it’s now looking more likely to be Boseman vs. Ahmed.

With additional wins this month from the critics groups, Boseman continues to solidify his frontrunner status, especially given how well Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is performing across the board. Hopkins’ campaign still hasn’t exactly taken flight (it’s beyond time Sony Pictures Classics ramp up efforts for The Father), but expect to see him scoop up nominations once the major awards kick-off.

Much like the race for Best Actress, there’s general consensus four spots for Best Actor are beginning to look locked for Boseman, Ahmed, Hopkins, and Delroy Lindo. The latter will need to score nominations from the televised awards to prove voters still remember Da 5 Bloods. But Lindo deserves that fourth spot and they’d be crazy to overlook him this year.

That leaves our fifth spot up in the air and it’s anyone’s guess what the Academy will do. Personally, I’d love to see Steven Yeun nab it for his gorgeous performance in Minari. I still remain resolute the film is going to “overperform” come Oscar nominations morning, meaning Yeun could easily be swept along for the ride. That being said, you can’t deny the Academy love to acknowledge veterans in this category, which bodes well for Gary Oldman, Tom Hanks, and Mads Mikkelsen.

BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
5. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ben Affleck – The Way Back (Warner Bros.)
Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
Colin Firth – Supernova (Bleecker Street)
Tom Hanks – News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer)
Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)
Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Jude Law – The Nest (IFC Films)