Best Actress Oscars Predictions (January)

While Frances McDormand took an early lead with the critics groups, Carey Mulligan has barreled through the tail-end of the month and now sits just one win behind McDormand. Sure, we know critics awards can mean absolutely nothing, but Mulligan’s nomination is now becoming almost undeniable. But we said the same for Amy Adams in Arrival in 2016, and look how that turned out.

There’s still every chance McDormand continues her impressive streak and wins at the major ceremonies like the Golden Globes and SAG. But, for now, this category remains wide open and without a clear frontrunner. I’m moving Viola Davis into the top spot for the time being. Yes, she’s already an Oscar winner, but there’s been a lot of love for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and she’s owed the Best Actress trophy she should have won for The Help.

There seems to be general consensus four spots are beginning to look locked in for Davis, Mulligan, McDormand, and Vanessa Kirby. The latter is still somewhat shakey, given Kirby hasn’t seen any love from the critics groups. But the next few weeks should prove whether she’s a true contender or if Netflix has dropped the ball on Pieces of a Woman.

That leaves the fifth slot open for a number of possibilities. Could Andra Day sneak in for late-breaking contender The United States vs. Billie Holiday? Will the Academy go for something from the indie world like Sidney Flanigan in Never Rarely Sometimes Always? Might Amy Adams nab her seventh nomination for the critically-reviled Hillbilly Elegy? After her surprise Emmy win a few months ago, Zendaya could be looking at her first Oscar nomination for Malcolm & Marie. The film might be proving divisive, but her performance has been universally acclaimed. Let’s see what the next month brings.

BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
5. Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Nicole Beharie – Miss Juneteenth (Vertical Entertainment)
Carrie Coon – The Nest (IFC Films)
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Han Ye-ri – Minari (A24)
Sofia Loren – The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Elisabeth Moss – The Invisible Man (Universal Pictures)
Michelle Pfieffer – French Exit (Sony Pictures Classics)
Meryl Streep – The Prom (Netflix)