Best Actress Oscars Predictions (October)

Welcome to the lead actress race for 2024. With the fall film festival season now in the distance and a few potential contenders still to debut on the horizon, it’s time for our first look at the battle for Best Actress.

As in most seasons of recent years, we’re heading for another tough battle for Best Actress with too many contenders and only five nomination slots. Festival season has provided us with plenty of stellar female lead acting performances. While it’s still far too early to call anyone a frontrunner, it feels like Mikey Madison has her nose in front right now for her firecracker of a performance in Palme d’Or winner Anora. It’s clear this film is going to be a major contender across the board and a big part of that comes from Madison’s brilliant turn as a no-nonsense escort that obviously has echoes of Julia Roberts’ turn in Pretty Woman. It’s the kind of star-making turn from a young ingenue the Academy loves to reward à la Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook or Brie Larson in Room.

Hot on her heels is Angelina Jolie for Maria, particularly after it was picked up by Netflix and locked in for limited theatrical release in November. Jolie’s performance has received the best reviews of her career in literally decades. She’s playing a real person. She’s a former Oscar winner for Girl, Interrupted all the way back in 1999. And, really, who doesn’t love Ang? It’s a campaign narrative that’s going to make her a formidable contender.

While the reaction to Emilia Pérez out of TIFF was decidedly far more mixed than the response it received at Cannes, few disagreed that Karla Sofía Gascón’s performance is one of the best aspects of the film. Yes, it’s going to help her campaign narrative that she’d be the first trans woman nominated for Best Actress, but it’s background noise to a genuinely mesmerising performance that deserves to be acknowledged by the Academy. I’m still cautious if the film is going to scoop up a big pool of nods, but Gascón’s nomination feels fairly locked already.

Then there’s four-time nominee Saoirse Ronan who could very well be a double nominee this year. Now that Apple TV+ have confirmed Ronan will be campaigned for Best Supporting Actress for Blitz, Sony Pictures Classics has a clearer run to score a Best Actress nod for The Outrun. Ronan rarely disappoints and her work here is really quite stunning, especially since she’s in every single scene. After four losses, there’s almost an “overdue” narrative to Ronan’s career that will either help her here or in Best Supporting
Actress.

As for the fifth spot, that’s obviously still open to all sorts of possibilities. Sony Pictures Classics have confirmed both Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be campaigned for Best Actress for Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It’s a move that will either result in the first pair of lead acting nominees from the same film since Amadeus in 1988, only one of the two will make it in, or it will blow up in SPC’s face and neither will be nominated. For now, I think that final spot goes to Nicole Kidman for one of the most vulnerable and brave performances of her career in Babygirl. But keep an eye on Demi Moore who is clearly going to campaign hard for The Substance.

BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
1. Mikey Madison – Anora (Neon)
2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (Netflix)
3. Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
5. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24)

IN CONTENTION
Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions)
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (Universal Pictures)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI)
Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
Florence Pugh – We Live in Time (A24)
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics)
Kate Winslet – Lee (Roadside Attractions)