The nominations for the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards brought us five screenplay contenders who landed nods at both: Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme on the original side and One Battle After Another, and Hamnet for adapted. As such, you should consider those as fairly safe locks for Oscar noms.
Last month, I said to keep an eye on Sorry, Baby and this month Eva Victor has been racking in wins with the critics groups for breakthrough/debut director. She’s likely looking at scoring a Directors Guild nomination (and probable win) for Best First-Time Feature next month. An Oscar nod for Best Original Screenplay is starting to feel more certain.
On the adapted side, it’s hard to ignore that Wake Up Dead Man has run out of steam. The previous two Knives Out films both scored screenplay noms, but both had better precursor season success. WUDM couldn’t land any mentions on the Oscars shortlist, including Best Casting, where it was expected to appear. It didn’t receive any Golden Globe or CCA nods. The Academy loves Rian Johnson, so it could still happen, but it drops out of my top five this month.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG, Gotham
Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
3. Bugonia (Focus Features) – CCA
Will Tracy
4. No Other Choice (NEON) – Gotham
Park Chan-wook, Don McKellar, Lee Kyoung-mi & Lee Ja-hye
5. Train Dreams (Netflix) – CCA, Gotham
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
IN CONTENTION
Die My Love (MUBI)
Frankenstein (Netflix) – CCA
The History of Sound (MUBI)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (TBD)
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pillion (A24) – Gotham
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG
Ryan Coogler
2. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) – GG, Gotham
Jafar Panahi
3. Sentimental Value (NEON) – CCA, GG
Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
4. Marty Supreme (A24) – CCA, GG
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
5. Sorry, Baby (A24) – CCA, Gotham
Eva Victor
IN CONTENTION
A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Kelly (Netflix) – CCA
Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
The Secret Agent (NEON) – Gotham
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Weapons (Warner Bros.)
