Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars Predictions (December)

In December, Conclave and Emilia Pérez were the only two adapted screenplays to land nominations at both the Golden Globe Awards and the Critics Choice Awards, so it’s safe to presume they are the stronger locks for an Oscar nom. The former ties for wins with the critics groups, so it’s starting to potentially firm as our frontrunner to win.

That tie stands with Nickel Boys, which has scored seven critics wins to add to its CCA nomination, so consider it practically a lock for a nod with the Academy too. And there’s still so much love out there for Sing Sing, so it feels fairly safe to declare these our top four as we head into the final stretch before nominations announcement.

That leaves that final spot up in the air with many possibilities. Perhaps Wicked really dominates and it carries a screenplay nom along for the ride. Maybe Dune: Part Two lands a nomination here like its predecessor did. But there’s something about a potential Pedro Almodóvar nomination that always feels rather inevitable, even if something like The Room Next Door is unlikely to show up anywhere else.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Conclave (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
Peter Straughan
2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – CCA, EFA, GG
Jacques Audiard
3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
4. Sing Sing (A24) – CCA
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
5. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – EFA
Pedro Almodóvar

IN CONTENTION
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – CCA
Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts
Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
David Scarpa, Peter Craig
I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics)
Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega
Inside Out 2 (Disney)
Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, Kelsey Mann
Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
Marielle Heller
Nosferatu (A24)
Robert Eggers
The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington
Queer (A24)
Justin Kuritzkes
Wicked (Universal Pictures) – CCA
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox
The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures)
Chris Sanders