At the end of this month, the Gotham Awards awarded Best Director to Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), which wasn’t a huge shock, given how well the film did there. But it could be an early signal that Panahi is starting to feel locked in for an Oscar nod, alongside Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), and Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
However, let us not forget Best Director has been tough to predict in recent years, and shock snubs have become an annual occurrence. That possibly bodes poorly for Coogler, but I think it’s really Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) that’s in danger. As lauded as the film is, it’s more Trier’s writing that’s receiving praise than his direction.
If Trier tumbles out, you’d expect to see Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) take his place. Now that the review embargo has broken and the film sits on 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, Safdie becomes a strong contender here. The December announcements might bring more clarity with how this race is shaping…or they’ll muddy the waters even further.
BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – Gotham
2. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features)
3. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident (NEON) – Gotham
5. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (NEON)
IN CONTENTION
Noah Baumbach – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Clint Bentley – Train Dreams (Netflix)
Kathryn Bigelow – A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
James Cameron – Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
Jon M. Chu – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
Scott Cooper – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Pictures)
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Mona Fastvold – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Jorgos Lanthimos – Bugonia (Focus Features)
Kleber Mendonça Filho – The Secret Agent (NEON)
Park Chan-wook – No Other Choice (NEON)
Benny Safdie – The Smashing Machine (A24)
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24)
