Best Documentary Feature Oscars Predictions (December)

With the Oscars shortlists unveiled in late December, we now know the final 15 films in official contention for the five nomination spots for Best Documentary Feature. The Academy have seemingly fallen back to their old ways by snubbing the documentary that was firming as a potential frontrunner. Despite over half a dozen critics wins and five wins at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards including Best Documentary Feature, Good Night Oppy failed to make the Academy’s shortlist. Amazon Studios had already spent big on its Oscar campaign, but it’s not to be.

It was the only major snub to speak of and leaves this race wide open as the new year approaches. For the time being, I’m giving the top spot to Laura Poitras’s Golden Lion winner All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. Poitras won this category back in 2015 for Citizenfour, and that could either work for or against her. The film has picked up the lion’s share of critics prizes so far including big wins with Los Angeles and New York.

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Documentaries primarily constructed from archival footage generally struggled to win over the Academy’s documentary branch. Eventual winner Summer of Soul certainly broke that rule last year, so that bodes well for the much-beloved Fire of Love. It’s jumped the first hurdle by making its way onto the shortlist, so it’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

As Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to rage on, it adds a level of petinancy to Navalny that may be too hard to ignore, especially given its titular subject is still stuck serving an unjust prison sentence. As the world continues to condemn the actions of Vladimir Putin, a documentary that shines a light on his corrupt reign of power might be destined for Oscar glory.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (NEON)
2. Fire of Love (NEON)
3. All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films)
4. Descendant (Netflix)
5. Navalny (HBO Documentary Films)

IN CONTENTION
Bad Axe (IFC Films)
Children of the Mist (Film Movement)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Pictures Classics)
Hidden Letters (Cargo Film & Releasing)
A House Made of Splinters (Cinephil)
The Janes (HBO Documentary Films)
Last Flight Home (MTV Documentary Films)
Moonage Daydream (HBO Documentary Films/NEON)
Retrograde (National Geographic)
The Territory (National Geographic)


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Author: Doug Jamieson

From musicals to horror and everything in between, Doug has an eclectic taste in films. Both a champion of independent cinema and a defender of more mainstream fare, he prefers to find an equal balance between two worlds often at odds with each other. A film critic by trade but a film fan at heart, Doug also writes for his own website The Jam Report, and Australia’s the AU review.