With the unveiling of the Academy’s shortlists, we now know the final 15 films in contention for Best Documentary. The biggest snub was dealt to Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, which fell to the age-old Critics Choice Documentary Awards winner curse. It tied for the top prize there with Will & Harper, which avoided the jinx and still landed on the Oscars shortlist.
There’s one documentary steamrolling through the precursor season and it’s oddly one still without any U.S. distribution. No Other Land has picked up the most prizes from the critics groups including New York and Los Angeles plus wins at the Gotham Awards, the European Film Awards, and the International Documentary Association. At this point, it’s almost feeling unstoppable.
Elsewhere, no documentary has hit with every precursor group thus far, but that’s fairly standard for this category, which seems to become broader and more unpredictable every season. Of the six films nominated by the Producers Guild of America, only one (Porcelain War) landed on the Academy’s shortlist. You really have to just go with your gut in this category and mine says Sugarcane, Dahomey, Daughters, and Will & Harper right now.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE PREDICTIONS:
1. No Other Land (TBC) – BIFA, CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA
2. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) – CCA, IDA
3. Dahomey (MUBI) – EFA, CEH, Gotham
4. Daughters (Netflix) – CCA, CEH
5. Will & Harper (Netflix) – CCA
IN CONTENTION
The Bibi Files (Madman Entertainment)
Black Box Diaries (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, IDA
Eno (First Film Co./Tigerlily Productions)
Frida (Amazon MGM Studios)
Hollywoodgate (Fourth Act Film) – CEH
Porcelain War (Picturehouse) – CEH, PGA
Queendom (Dogwoof/Greenwich)
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (Netflix) – CCA, IDA
Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat (Kino Lorber) – CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA
Union (Level Ground) – CEH, Gotham
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