In December, we have four original screenplays that managed to score nominations at both the Golden Globe Awards and the Critics Choice Awards; Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, and The Substance, so it’s safe to presume they are the stronger locks for an Oscar nom. Anora is leading the wins with the critics groups with The Brutalist and A Real Pain picking up a handful of critics wins of their own. Meanwhile, The Substance just goes from strength to strength every week and a screenplay nom now feels like an almost certainty.
That really only leaves that final spot up for grabs. Given the Academy’s recent penchant for nominating more than one non-English language screenplay in one year, it could be The Seed of the Sacred Fig. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that Mike Leigh has five previous nominations in this category, which just highlights the Academy’s love of his writing. Still, it has been almost 15 years since his last nomination, so it’s hard to say for sure.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Anora (Neon) – CCA, GG
Sean Baker
2. The Brutalist (A24) – CCA, GG
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
3. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
Jesse Eisenberg
4. The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, EFA, GG
Coralie Fargeat
5. Hard Truths (Bleeker Street)
Mike Leigh
IN CONTENTION
All We Imagine as Light (Janus Films)
Payal Kapadia
Babygirl (A24)
Halina Reijn
Blitz (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen
Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA
Justin Kuritzkes
A Different Man (A24)
Aaron Schimberg
His Three Daughters (Netflix)
Azazel Jacobs
Juror #2 (Warner Bros.)
Jonathan Abrams
Maria (Netflix)
Steven Knight
Saturday Night (Sony Pictures)
Jason Reitman, Gil Kenan|
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) – EFA
Mohammad Rasoulof
September 5 (Paramount Pictures) – CCA
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum
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