It may be wildly presumptuous to have an as-yet-unseen film in the #1 position, but when it’s a Paul Thomas Anderson production, it doesn’t seem like too far of a stretch of the imagination. With eight unsuccessful Oscar nominations (including four for screenwriting), Anderson is dreadfully overdue. Licorice Pizza could be his ticket to the Oscars this year and the Original Screenplay category feels like his strongest chance of a win. Now we just have to actually see the film.
But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. With a strong chance of a Best Picture win, Belfast could see a flow-on effect throughout the other categories, meaning a win for Kenneth Branagh’s original screenplay based on his childhood is quite possible. Much like Jane Campion, if the Academy doesn’t award Branagh with Best Director, a screenplay victory could be his consolation prize.
Another film we are yet to see is Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos, which is set to premiere in early December. After viewing the first teaser trailer, I’m not entirely confident it will be a major awards player outside of the technical categories. But you can never discount the chances of a nomination for Sorkin’s writing, even if it may be the only nod the film scores.
With such a strong field in the race for Best International Feature Film, the Academy would look foolish not to acknowledge the screenplay of an international contender. That bodes well for films like A Hero, The Hand of God, and The Worst Person in the World. While Spain did not select Parallel Mothers as its official submission, the Academy could still look to honour Pedro Almodóvar’s screenwriting.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Belfast (Focus Features)
Kenneth Branagh
3. King Richard (Warner Bros)
Zach Baylin
4. Mass (Bleeker Street)
Fran Kranz
5. Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Aaron Sorkin
IN CONTENTION
C’mon C’mon (A24)
Mike Mills
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Adam McKay, David Sirota
The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola
The Hand of God (Netflix)
Paolo Sorrentino
A Hero (Amazon Studios)
Asghar Farhadi
Nine Days (Sony Pictures Classics)
Edson Oda
Parallel Mothers (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
Red Rocket (A24)
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
Spencer (Neon)
Steven Knight
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
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