Best Original Screenplay Predictions (October)

This category is curiously shaping up to potentially being a race between Aaron Sorkin and the father of his former collaborator David Fincher. While there has been a rather divisive response to Sorkin’s sophomore directorial effort, there’s no denying his screenplay for The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an absolute firecracker and could see the screenwriter take home his second Academy Award.

But the narrative behind the creation of Mank‘s screenplay could be difficult to stop. Jack Fincher wrote the screenplay back in the mid-90s with the intention for the film to be directed by his son, David. But the project fell apart when the younger Fincher insisted the film be shot in black-and-white. 17 years after the elder Fincher’s death, Mank is finally here and a posthumous nomination seems all but assured.

It’s been five years since an animated film earned a nomination for Best Original Screenplay. Coincidentally, that was for Pixar’s Inside Out, which was co-written by Soul director/co-writer Pete Docter. It seems highly probable Docter will receive his fifth screenwriting nomination, especially if Soul becomes a major contender across the board.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin
2. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher
3. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
4. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Will Berson and Shaka King (screenplay), Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas (story by)
5. Soul (Disney)
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers

MAJOR CONTENDERS:
Ammonite (Neon)
Francis Lee
I’m Your Woman
Julia Hart, Jordan Horowitz
Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman
On the Rocks (AppleTV+)
Sofia Coppola
Over the Moon (Netflix)
Jennifer Yee McDevitt, Audrey Wells
Palm Springs (NEON)
Andy Siara
Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell
Respect (United Artists Releasing) [Moved to August 2021]
Tracey Scott Wilson (screenplay and story by), Callie Khouri (story by)
Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)