Let’s break down the nominations announcements we had in December for the big one. The Golden Globe Awards gave Best Motion Picture nominations to everything expected bar surprising snubs for Dune: Part Two and Sing Sing in favour of September 5. The Critics Choice Awards flipped that and went with both films plus The Substance. So all eyes turned to the AFI Top Ten films which went to Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, and Wicked.
Since the Academy expanded its Best Picture nominees to ten in 2009, they have never exactly matched with AFI. That would suggest at least one or two films from their top ten are missing out. Even without a mention from AFI, The Substance continues to pick up steam as the season continues. While the Academy has an aversion to horror, this one is feeling too big to ignore. I think it knocks A Real Pain out, but let’s see what the next few weeks bring before I lock in my final ten predictions.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. Anora (Neon) – AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit
2. Conclave (Focus Features) – AFI, CCA, GG
3. The Brutalist (A24) – AFI, CCA, GG
4. Wicked (Universal Pictures) – AFI, CCA, GG
5. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – AFI, CCA, EFA, GG
6. Sing Sing (A24) – AFI, CCA, Spirit
7. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios) – AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit
8. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – AFI, CCA, NBR
9. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – AFI, CCA, GG, NBR
10. The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, EFA, GG, Spirit
IN CONTENTION
Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios) – GG, Gotham
Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
Nosferatu (Focus Features)
A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – AFI, GG, NBR
The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – EFA
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) – EFA
September 5 (Paramount Pictures) – GG
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