The guaranteed ten Best Picture nominees ultimately elicited few surprises. The only mildly shocking nomination was Nightmare Alley, which had experienced a fairly chequered awards season. Perhaps some were surprised by Drive My Car‘s nomination, but the tealeaves were definitely there to be read. The film makes history as the first Japanese film nominated for Best Picture and now stands as the undeniable frontrunner for Best International Feature Film.
Now that we have our ten nominees, the battle can truly begin. On paper, The Power of the Dog is certainly firming as our frontrunner. It’s got the Golden Globe win and nominations at PGA, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. It’s got the critical acclaim. Its writer/director is all but a certainty to win for both directing and screenwriting. And it’s got the weight of Netflix behind it. We know they’ve been desperate to win this category for years now, and this is looking like their best chance since Roma in 2018. However, The Power of the Dog doesn’t feel like a solid lock just yet. The next few weeks will either prove its strength or expose its vulnerability.
Then again, Belfast no longer feels all that secure either, particularly after its ensemble loss at the SAG Awards and it missed key Oscar nominations like Best Film Editing and Best Cinematography. The only recent Best Picture winner without an editing nomination was Birdman in 2014, and we all know that only missed because the film appeared to have a lack of editing. The film isn’t our likely winner in any other category besides Best Original Screenplay where Kenneth Branagh faces a tough challenge from Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza).
After CODA won the ensemble prize at SAG, you likely heard all sorts of rumblings about it being a true threat to win Best Picture. Look, I love the film, but let’s just calm down. The SAG ensemble winner hasn’t gone on to claim Best Picture since xxx in 2012. And with only two other nominations for Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay, CODA would have to break practically every rule in the book to win the big prize. Sure, we’re in a new age of the Oscars where anything can happen, so let’s just say it’s mildly plausible and see what happens over the next fortnight.
So what will shape this race before Oscar voting commences on March 17? BAFTA and Critics Choice will both reveal their winners on March 13, while the PGA on March 19. The latter will be announced just three before voting closes, so it will have zero impact on early voters. But it could prove indicative of their votes and may sway those yet to cast their ballot. We’re in the endgame now, folks.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Belfast (Focus Features)
3. King Richard (Warner Bros.)
4. West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
5. CODA (Apple TV+)
6. Dune (Warner Bros.)
7. Licorice Pizza (MGM)
8. Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
9. Drive My Car (Janus Films)
10. Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
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