While it couldn’t score any other wins, One Battle After Another kicked off its season with a win for Best Feature at the Gotham Film Awards. It’s far from the most reliable precursor award (only four of the past 10 winners have gone on to a Best Picture victory), but it could be indicative of the incoming Oppenheimer-style pre-season sweep for Paul Thomas Anderson’s film.
Given its slightly disappointing reviews, Wicked: For Good takes a tumble down the top 10 this month. Could it fall out…for good? There’s no denying the response hasn’t been as rapturous as the first film, and there are early rumblings the box office might fall off a cliff soon, especially once Avatar: Fire and Ash arrives. My suspicion is the Academy won’t have room for both blockbuster sequels. For the moment, the latter sits outside the group, but that could change once it’s more widely seen and the review embargo breaks.
On the rise this month is It Was Just an Accident, which just picked up three prizes at the Gothams. Again, the Gothams aren’t always indicative of the eventual Oscar winners, but it can give a film a major campaign boost overall. Marty Supreme also felt like it solidified its place in the big race with a stellar initial Rotten Tomatoes score of 96%.
With that in mind, it feels like the top five or six films are now feeling like locks, leaving those final four spots open to numerous contenders. The buzz around Jay Kelly has certainly cooled, but it will debut on Netflix this Friday, so perhaps it will pick up again. Frankenstein is still holding in there, while Train Dreams just keeps picking up steam (yuck, yuck).
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – Gotham
2. Hamnet (Focus Features) – Gotham
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Sentimental Value (NEON)
5. It Was Just an Accident (NEON)
6. Marty Supreme (A24)
7. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
8. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
9. Frankenstein (Netflix)
10. Train Dreams (Netflix) – Gotham
IN CONTENTION
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
Bugonia (Focus Features) – Gotham
A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
No Other Choice (NEON)
The Secret Agent (NEON)
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) – Gotham
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
