While not the most important precursor award, it’s obviously pleasing for Warner Bros. and Focus Features to see their big contenders One Battle After Another and Hamnet both nab Best Feature nominations at the Gotham Awards. It was also a great starting point for current “outsider” contenders like Train Dreams and The Testament of Ann Lee. The former is really picking up steam lately, so time will tell if it can crack the Academy’s top 10.
It’s never wise to read too much into “first reactions” from screenings mostly comprising entertainment journalists and influencers, but Universal will be thrilled the first screenings of Wicked: For Good elicited positive responses across the board. It’s undoubtedly set to be a box office juggernaut and just that should be enough to see it nab a Best Picture nod to match its predecessor. Could it actually go all the way and become the first movie musical to win since Chicago in 2002? Never say never.
After relatively muted responses from Venice and Telluride, Netflix will be pleased Frankenstein had seen its Oscar campaign come roaring back to life (pun intended). It nabbed runner-up for TIFF’s People’s Choice Award and further screenings in October have seen stronger reviews to boost its Rotten Tomatoes score up to 85% plus an impressive 95% audience score. I’m now glad I remained faithful and kept it in my top 10.
The only remaining unseen piece of the Best Picture puzzle is James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash. It’s likely the first screenings still won’t take place until early December, so we’ll remain in the dark for another month yet. If the film can match the staggering box office takes of its predecessors (which, let’s face it, seems all but assured), will that be enough for the Academy? All three The Lord of the Rings films scored Best Picture nods, so the precedent is there.
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – Gotham
2. Hamnet (Focus Features) – Gotham
3. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
5. Sentimental Value (NEON)
6. Marty Supreme (A24)
7. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
8. Frankenstein (Netflix)
9. It Was Just an Accident (NEON)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
IN CONTENTION
Bugonia (Focus Features) – Gotham
A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
No Other Choice (NEON)
The Secret Agent (NEON)
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century Studios)
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) – Gotham
Train Dreams (Netflix) – Gotham
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
