The Academy’s nominations announcement in late January gave us one big surprise in the race for Best Supporting Actor when Delroy Lindo (Sinners) scored a nomination over Paul Mescal (Hamnet). Mescal joined that unfortunate group of actors who have managed the quartet of key precursor nominations but still failed to land an Oscar nod. Lindo’s nomination was particularly surprising given his co-star Miles Caton was the chosen Sinners nominee at the Actor Awards.
But the shocks kept coming in this race in February when Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) took home his first BAFTA. Most were predicting a win for Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) to match his Golden Globe victory, and that likely would have put this race to bed. Instead, we now enter this final phase where we have three different winners from the three televised awards with one ceremony left to go.
All eyes now turn to the Actor Awards this weekend. Skarsgård isn’t nominated, so he’ll get no further campaign boosts this season. If Penn wins, the tide has turned in the final stages, and his third Oscar win will seem inevitable. If Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) wins, he could be our new frontrunner. If Caton or Mescal win, all bets are off. I’m keeping Skarsgård in front for now…but that will likely change after this Sunday.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (NEON) – BAFTA, CCA, GG
2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix) – Gotham – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
5. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
