Well, the race for Best Supporting Actor is certainly one of the most fluid of the season. At this stage, we’re still without a solid frontrunner. And there’s a good 15 performances in genuine contention for the final five spots. We’ll likely need some further critics nominations and the televised awards to really start making this race a tad clearer.
Last month, I had Bradley Cooper in the lead for his previously unseen performance in Licorice Pizza. Now that the film has premiered and Cooper’s role has been confirmed to be approximately eight minutes long, I’ve toppled him out of the top five entirely.
It might be a knee-jerk reaction and next month he’s right back in contention. But let’s just wait and see. There is a history of short performances still managing to nab Oscar nominations. Cooper’s A Star is Born co-star Sam Elliott scored a nod for barely 10 minutes of screen time. Heck, Judi Dench managed to win for eight minutes worth of Queen Elizabeth I in Shakespeare in Love, so Cooper isn’t entirely gone from this race.
For this month, I’m moving Kodi Smit-McPhee into the top spot. The chorus of love for The Power of the Dog just continues to grow stronger and Smit-McPhee has earned unanimous praise for his understated yet captivating performance. While this category has favoured more veteran performers in recent years, the Academy love the opportunity to award a young performer and Smit-McPhee would be the 2nd youngest winner for Best Supporting Actor.
Keep an eye on Mike Faist for West Side Story. Faist originated the role of Connor in the Broadway musical Dear Evan Hansen, which netted the actor a Daytime Emmy, a Grammy, and a Tony nomination. As the scrappy Riff, Faist delivers a magnetic performance that consistently steals focus at every turn. If the Academy go crazy for West Side Story, Faist would easily nab a nod here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
3. Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
4. Troy Kostur – CODA (Apple TV+)
5. Jason Isaacs – Mass (Bleeker Street)
IN CONTENTION
Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios)
David Alvarez – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Anders Danielsen Lie – The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
Mike Faist – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Robin de Jesus – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Richard Jenkins – The Humans (A24)
Jared Leto – House of Gucci (MGM)
Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM)
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Timothy Spall – Spencer (Neon)
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