With over a dozen wins from the critics groups, Kodi Smit-McPhee continues to steamroll his way through the precursor season. That’s happened with many a performer before and they’ve still either lost the Oscar or not even nabbed a nomination at all. But the fact Smit-McPhee stars in a genuine Best Picture contender solidifies his place as the frontrunner right now.
Smit-McPhee’s main competition could be Troy Kotsur and his charming performance in the heartwarming CODA. Kotsur has nabbed wins at the Gotham Awards and from the critics groups of Boston and Las Vegas plus nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and the Spirit Awards. His run of success feels reminiscent of Paul Raci last year for Sound of Metal, which coincidentally also dealt with the experiences of the deaf. Much like Raci, Kotsur was initially considered an outside chance, but he’s firming for a nomination with each week.
Given Ciarán Hinds also stars in a major Best Picture contender, I think his place in the top five is also quite certain. Hinds nabbed a big win from the National Board of Review to compliment his nominations from Critics Choice, the HFPA, the Satellite Awards, and the British Independent Film Awards, so he’s ticking all the right boxes so far.
That really leaves those final two spots completely up in the air. I continue to maintain hope Jason Isaacs can make it through for Mass, even if he hasn’t nabbed nominations elsewhere thus far. For this month, I’m moving Jamie Dornan into the top five, but he’s definitely the shakiest possibility right now. If the Belfast love is strong enough, Dornan could be carried along for the ride. But there is a plethora of plenty of other contenders nipping at his heels to nab a nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
2. Troy Kostur – CODA (Apple TV+)
3. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
4. Jason Isaacs – Mass (Bleecker Street)
5. Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
IN CONTENTION
Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios)
David Alvarez – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Anders Danielsen Lie – The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
Mike Faist – West Side Story (20th Century Studios)
Robin de Jesus – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Richard Jenkins – The Humans (A24)
Jared Leto – House of Gucci (MGM)
Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM)
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos (Amazon Studios)
Timothy Spall – Spencer (Neon)
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