Just like Licorice Pizza writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson, Bradley Cooper has also been nominated for eight Academy Awards without a win thus far. Cooper has been on the cusp of victory several times now (most recently in 2018 for A Star Is Born), but it’s just never been his year. Sure, we haven’t seen his performance yet, but Cooper has that “overdue” narrative that will make him hard to beat, if he delivers something special.
While double nominees in the same category from the same film used to be a rarity, it’s happened three times in the past four years in Best Supporting Actor. That bodes well for several films including Best Picture frontrunner Belfast. Both Ciarán Hinds and Jamie Dornan will be campaigned as supporting, but can they both get in? This category is oddly stacked this year, so I’m just picking veteran Hinds for now. But if Belfast can maintain the love, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dornan sneak in too.
Also on the list of films with double contenders are The Power of the Dog and House of Gucci. Many presumed Jesse Plemons would be the lone competitor from Jane Campion’s western epic, but it’s 25-year-old Kodi Smit-McPhee who truly steals focus in the film. We’re still yet to see House of Gucci and ascertain who has the meatier role between Jared Leto and Al Pacino. They’re both Oscar winners, so it’s anyone’s guess who the Academy may favour.
Keep an eye on Troy Kostur, who could be this year’s equivalent of Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. Kostur delivers a charming, empathetic performance in CODA, but it’s still hard to know if Apple knows how to run a successful Oscar campaign given their lack of awards season experience. Kostur just nabbed a Gotham Award nomination, which is a great start for his quest for an Oscar nod.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:
1. Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza (MGM)
2. Jason Isaacs – Mass (Bleeker Street)
3. Richard Jenkins – The Humans (A24)
4. Ciarán Hinds – Belfast (Focus Features)
5. Jared Leto – House of Gucci (MGM)
IN CONTENTION
Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (Amazon Studios)
Jon Bernthal – King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
Robin de Jesus – tick, tick… BOOM! (Netflix)
Jamie Dornan – Belfast (Focus Features)
Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple TV+)
Troy Kostur – CODA (Apple TV+)
Al Pacino – House of Gucci (MGM)
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Timothy Spall – Spencer (Neon)
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